According to the source, Polymarket traders are pricing a 94% chance of a U.S. government shutdown in 2025 as of Sep 30, 2025 (source: Polymarket prediction market data). A federal shutdown would significantly scale back SEC operations, delaying registrations, rulemaking, and approvals that can affect crypto ETFs and exchange listings (source: SEC Operations Plan Under a Lapse in Appropriations). The CFTC also operates with limited staff during shutdowns, which can slow oversight of crypto derivatives markets including CME Bitcoin futures and options (source: CFTC Lapse in Appropriations Plan). Shutdowns typically halt or delay major U.S. economic data releases, increasing macro uncertainty and potential volatility in risk assets such as BTC and ETH, which have shown rising correlation with equities (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics contingency guidance; IMF research on crypto–equity correlation). The 2018–2019 shutdown reduced real GDP by an estimated 11 billion dollars with 3 billion dollars permanently lost, highlighting potential demand headwinds if a closure is prolonged (source: Congressional Budget Office 2019 report). Treasury debt service continues during shutdowns, so core T-bill plumbing remains functional, a key consideration for stablecoins that hold short-term Treasuries in reserves such as USDC (source: U.S. Treasury operations guidance; Circle reserve disclosures).

According to the source, Polymarket market pricing implies a 76% probability of a U.S. government shutdown in 2025 as of Sep 24, 2025, signaling elevated event risk to monitor for crypto positioning; source: Polymarket market data. Macro-policy uncertainty such as U.S. funding lapses has been associated with tighter cross-asset correlations that can transmit volatility to crypto assets including BTC and ETH; source: International Monetary Fund research (IMF, 2022). Historically, the longest U.S. shutdown lasted 35 days (Dec 2018–Jan 2019), underscoring tail-risk duration for markets; source: Congressional Research Service. Traders should track changes in the Polymarket odds alongside the U.S. appropriations process as practical catalysts for crypto volatility; source: Polymarket market data; Congressional Research Service.