According to @rovercrc, Polymarket prediction markets assign a 97.5% probability that the Federal Reserve cuts rates, with an 85% chance the move is 25 bps (source: Polymarket market odds). Kaiko has reported a negative correlation between BTC performance and rising U.S. real yields in 2023–2024, highlighting why Fed easing odds are a key macro input for crypto positioning (source: Kaiko research). Traders should monitor BTC and ETH spot-perp basis, funding, options implied volatility, and DXY/UST2Y around the decision to validate the path implied by Polymarket pricing (source: Deribit and Glassnode derivatives dashboards; Polymarket odds).