According to @KobeissiLetter, Goldman Sachs reports the US Dollar’s 1-month realized volatility exceeded the S&P 500 over the last month, marking only the third occurrence in seven years after December 2023 and July 2025 (source: The Kobeissi Letter; Goldman Sachs). During the April sell-off, the realized volatility ratio between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar Index reached 6x, the highest since 2020 (source: The Kobeissi Letter; Goldman Sachs). Year to date, the US Dollar is down about 10%, tracking its worst year since 1973, while the S&P 500 is up roughly 14% with 32 all-time highs (source: The Kobeissi Letter). For traders, persistent USD selling alongside higher FX volatility versus equities is a key macro backdrop for USD-priced risk assets, including crypto such as BTC and ETH, to monitor (source: The Kobeissi Letter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has dropped below the 98 level for the first time since early 2022, a development that could create a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). A weakening dollar is historically correlated with easier financial conditions and increased global liquidity, which tends to benefit speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies (@KobeissiLetter). This decline is driven by several factors, including U.S. headline inflation coming in at 2.4%, slightly below the 2.5% consensus estimate, which reinforces expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve policy (@KobeissiLetter). Citing the CME FedWatch Tool, the analysis notes that markets are pricing in a 99.8% probability of a rate cut at the June Fed meeting (@KobeissiLetter). Additionally, growing narratives around de-dollarization and policy uncertainty are cited as factors eroding confidence in the dollar and accelerating its decline, potentially signaling a bullish catalyst for the crypto market (@KobeissiLetter).