According to Edward Dowd, fiscal stimulus is a counter-cyclical tool and deploying it into a supposedly strong economy risks higher inflation, implying policymakers see economic weakness ahead. Source: https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1998668375619469781 For trading, monitor the NY Fed yield-curve recession probability and the ICE US Dollar Index DXY to gauge risk sentiment that can spill over into crypto beta, where BTC and ETH have shown stronger correlation with broader risk assets. Sources: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycmodel https://www.theice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks To track policy repricing, use the CME FedWatch Tool for market-implied rate paths that react to growth and inflation headlines linked to fiscal policy. Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

According to @cryptorover, the New York Fed President expects quantitative easing to start soon, which he frames as a bullish catalyst for risk assets including BTC and ETH. Source: Crypto Rover on X, Nov 8, 2025. This claim is not corroborated in the provided content by an official New York Fed speech or FOMC statement, so traders should verify via the New York Fed news and speeches page and Federal Reserve Board press releases before positioning. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York communications; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System press releases. If confirmed, QE has historically compressed Treasury term premia and lowered long-end yields, easing financial conditions that tend to support liquidity-sensitive assets. Source: FRBNY Staff Report 441 by Gagnon et al. 2011; Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates. Crypto performance is sensitive to real yields and the US dollar, so monitor DXY and TIPS-derived real rates alongside BTC futures basis and funding. Source: BIS Quarterly Review on crypto markets 2022; ICE US Dollar Index data; CME Group Bitcoin futures market statistics. Key trading checklist: watch H.4.1 balance sheet expansion and ON RRP usage for liquidity impulse, and track BTC and ETH spot-perp basis for confirmation of risk-on flow. Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 Factors Affecting Reserve Balances; Federal Reserve overnight reverse repo operations statistics; CME Group and major exchange derivatives dashboards.