According to @BullTheoryio, the Russell 2000 ETF IWM just posted its highest monthly close and is testing 2025 range highs, a pattern the author links to rising US liquidity and stronger risk appetite that historically precede altcoin rallies, source: @BullTheoryio. The author states IWM has broken or retested major horizontal levels from 2015, 2018, and 2021, and in each instance BTC advanced first with altcoins following after a lag, which the author notes mirrors the present setup where IWM is at highs while BTC and alts remain below prior peaks, source: @BullTheoryio. The author adds that a multi-year bear market in BTC has not historically begun while IWM was making new highs, framing the current drawdown as mid-cycle rather than cycle end, source: @BullTheoryio. On BTC structure, the author asserts the higher timeframe uptrend from the 2022 lows remains intact despite some daily EMA breaks, with BTC attempting to re-couple with equities and broader risk assets, source: @BullTheoryio. On macro, the author cites that the Fed is already in a rate-cut cycle, some large banks expect QE-like actions by early 2026, and proposed fiscal policies such as income tax removal and tariff-based dividends could add liquidity, which together support an extended cycle into 2025-2026 rather than a new bear, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @CoinMarketCap, Arthur Hayes said BTC likely bottomed at $80,000 last week and expects price to hold above that level as U.S. liquidity improves (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Nov 25, 2025). According to @CoinMarketCap, Hayes links his outlook to the Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening next month, which he suggests would increase dollar liquidity supportive of BTC (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Nov 25, 2025). According to @CoinMarketCap, traders can treat $80,000 as a key support in Hayes’ framework, with improving liquidity as a potential bullish catalyst if the Fed follows through (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Nov 25, 2025).

According to @GracyBitget, Bitcoin’s price is now primarily driven by US liquidity and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, reflecting heightened institutional dominance and Wall Street pricing power over BTC price action. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025). She adds that capital from Europe, the Middle East, and Asia is rotating into gold and equities, aligning with this year’s strength in gold, US AI-related stocks, and China’s equity index rather than BTC. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025). Looking ahead, she identifies two catalysts: the anticipated November end of the US government shutdown (with Polymarket’s market indicating Nov 14) and a potential December Fed shift to halt balance-sheet reduction and start a rate-cut cycle. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025); Polymarket (as cited by @GracyBitget). If both conditions are met, she argues BTC, as a highly liquidity-sensitive asset, could push toward $150,000 in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, consistent with her earlier $130K–$200K range. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025). Trading takeaway: prioritize US spot Bitcoin ETF net flow trends, Fed balance-sheet and rate-path signals, and the shutdown resolution timeline as near-term catalysts for BTC volatility and direction under this framework. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025). Risk to view: a prolonged shutdown or a Fed that maintains QT and delays cuts would undermine the setup outlined. Source: @GracyBitget (Nov 10, 2025).

According to @GracyBitget, BTC price action is now primarily dictated by US domestic liquidity, with Wall Street-led institutional flows via spot BTC ETFs increasingly setting direction (source: @GracyBitget; Forbes). She adds that capital from Europe, the Middle East, and Asia tends to favor gold and equities, which she argues helps explain this year’s strength in gold, US AI stocks, and China’s STAR 50 index (source: @GracyBitget). As a near-term catalyst, she points to Polymarket odds that the US government shutdown could end around Nov 14, which would restore fiscal outlays and ease liquidity pressure (source: @GracyBitget citing Polymarket). She further argues that if the Federal Reserve halts quantitative tightening in December and begins a rate-cut cycle, BTC should be among the first risk assets to benefit due to its high sensitivity to liquidity (source: @GracyBitget). On targets, she reiterates that once fiscal spending resumes and the Fed turns dovish, BTC can exceed $130,000 and attempt $150,000–$200,000, framing the timing as this Q4 or next Q1 (source: @GracyBitget). She discloses a fully allocated crypto position while noting NFA, underscoring conviction in a new BTC all-time high if liquidity pivots as outlined (source: @GracyBitget).

According to Charles Edwards (@caprioleio), the Federal Reserve has announced a significant reduction in its balance sheet Quantitative Tightening (QT) within the next 10 days, which is expected to substantially increase US liquidity. Additionally, it is broadly anticipated that the QT and balance sheet offloading will cease by 2025, setting the stage for potential market impacts.

According to Charles Edwards (@caprioleio), the current Bitcoin cycle has been marked by a flat monetary cycle, contrasting with the previous cycle's strong uptrend. However, there are now indications of a potential major multi-year bottom in US Liquidity, with an eve/adam bottom forming, suggesting a possible shift in the cycle.