According to @ReutersBiz, the U.S. government shutdown extends into another week, earnings season is in full swing, U.S.-China trade tensions remain tense, and a busy economic data calendar are the top stories to watch for business and finance in the coming week, as shared in its week-ahead update on Oct 18, 2025 at reut.rs/4hdjJse, source: Reuters Business. According to @ReutersBiz, this week-ahead lineup of macro and earnings catalysts serves as a market watchlist that traders, including those in crypto tracking BTC and ETH, can reference for timing around headline risk, source: Reuters Business at reut.rs/4hdjJse.

According to @rovercrc, Bloomberg is reporting that panic over a potential US government shutdown is driving investors into Bitcoin (BTC) as a new safe-haven, indicating rotation toward BTC under macro stress, source: @rovercrc. The post frames BTC as a perceived safe-haven that can shape near-term trading sentiment and focus attention on BTC dominance and spot demand, source: @rovercrc.

According to @business, Bitcoin (BTC) set a fresh record on Sunday, topping $125,000 for the first time since mid-August as investors rotated into safe-haven assets amid the US government shutdown, a move dubbed the debasement trade, source: Bloomberg/@business. The report adds that BTC is hovering near record levels at the week’s open, underscoring strong macro-hedge demand tied to fiscal uncertainty, source: Bloomberg/@business.

According to @business, Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $125,000, setting a record high as a broader risk rally tied to the US government shutdown boosted crypto markets, a development reported by Bloomberg Business. source: Bloomberg/@business

According to @ReutersBiz, Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management said the US government shutdown has injected a wild card into investors’ expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate cut, signaling higher near-term policy uncertainty for markets; source: Reuters Business. Shutdowns have historically delayed key economic releases such as the Employment Situation and GDP, reducing the data available for the Fed’s data-dependent decisions and complicating rate-cut timing; sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2013 shutdown delay notice), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2013 shutdown delay statements), Federal Reserve FOMC statements noting a data-dependent policy stance. For traders, greater policy and data uncertainty tends to lift rates volatility and risk premia, which can spill over to crypto where BTC and ETH have shown rising correlation with equity risk sentiment during tightening cycles; source: International Monetary Fund analysis on crypto-equity co-movement. Key watchpoints include market-implied rate expectations and U.S. Treasury yields for signals on USD liquidity and broader risk appetite, which can influence BTC and ETH price volatility; sources: CME FedWatch Tool (policy odds), U.S. Department of the Treasury (yield curve).

According to the source, Bitcoin (BTC) and gold rose while U.S. stocks fell amid a U.S. government shutdown, indicating a risk-off rotation into perceived safe-haven assets. The source reports that this cross-asset move frames BTC trading alongside gold as a macro hedge while equities weaken on policy uncertainty. Based on the source-reported rotation, traders may prioritize defensive positioning and monitor BTC’s behavior relative to equity volatility and shutdown headlines for entry and risk management.

According to @ReutersBiz, Panmure Liberum’s Joachim Klement expects equities to remain stable during the US government shutdown and advises traders to focus on the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets for actionable signals. (source: Reuters Business tweet, Oct 1, 2025) No direct reference to cryptocurrencies or digital assets was provided in the report. (source: Reuters Business tweet, Oct 1, 2025)

According to @KobeissiLetter, historical data show that market dips on US government shutdown headlines were bought over 85% of the time, source: The Kobeissi Letter, Oct 1, 2025. For crypto, BTC and ETH have shown elevated positive correlation with US equities during macro-driven risk swings, so equity dip-buying has historically coincided with crypto bid recovery, source: Kaiko Research, 2023.

According to @StockMKTNewz, citing Bloomberg, the US SEC will halt most of its activities if a federal government shutdown occurs. Bloomberg reports that companies seeking to go public via IPO that have not completed SEC paperwork and had their filings declared effective before a shutdown may face delays, which can shift IPO calendars and execution timing. Bloomberg also notes the SEC’s EDGAR corporate filing system will remain fully functional during the shutdown. Per Bloomberg, only about 400 SEC employees would remain on duty, focused on market oversight and fraud detection.

According to @business, a looming US government shutdown is threatening to interrupt the recent IPO revival as companies face a tight deadline to secure SEC approval while the regulator prepares to halt most of its activities, creating immediate timing risk for deals not yet declared effective, source: Bloomberg. Based on this reported potential halt, traders should anticipate IPO calendar slippage and thinner primary issuance, which can affect near-term liquidity and price discovery in newly listed equities, source: Bloomberg. Crypto market participants should monitor BTC and ETH for headline-driven volatility as US regulatory operations risk can influence broader risk sentiment across risk assets, source: Bloomberg.

According to @EricBalchunas, despite warnings of a potential US government shutdown, the S&P 500 reaction was described as 'Meh' at the time of his post, signaling muted immediate equity impact, source: Eric Balchunas, X, Sep 30, 2025. The post indicates equities were not aggressively repricing shutdown risk at that moment and provided no crypto-specific signals, source: Eric Balchunas, X, Sep 30, 2025. For crypto market participants, especially in BTC and ETH, the takeaway is to monitor cross-asset sentiment and price action for any delayed spillover rather than headlines alone, source: Eric Balchunas, X, Sep 30, 2025.

According to the source, prediction market Kalshi prices a 70% probability that the U.S. government will shut down on Wednesday, signaling elevated policy risk into month‑end and early October (source: Kalshi). If a lapse in appropriations occurs, the SEC will scale to excepted operations, pausing most registrations and reviews, which can delay ETF and rulemaking timelines that crypto traders track closely (source: U.S. SEC Lapse in Appropriations Plan). A shutdown also postpones major macro releases such as the jobs report and CPI, reducing rate visibility and typically boosting event risk premia into deadlines, a dynamic options traders monitor for implied volatility in crypto (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics contingency plan; Deribit Insights). For Uptober seasonality, Bitcoin has logged multiple positive Octobers historically, but positioning should be anchored to the dollar and yields given the documented inverse relationship between BTC and DXY/real yields observed in recent market research (source: CoinGlass monthly returns dashboard; Kaiko Research).

According to Miles Deutscher, the odds of a US government shutdown this year have risen to over 60% on Polymarket. This situation arises when political parties fail to agree on new funding legislation before the current one expires. The deadline for reaching an agreement is mid-March, which could have significant implications for market stability and investor confidence. Traders should monitor these developments closely as they could impact market volatility and asset prices.