According to @KobeissiLetter, US heavy truck sales fell 47% over the last three months versus the prior three months to a 363,000 annualized pace, the lowest since 2020, with declines in four of the last five months (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Dec 7, 2025). The author adds that such a rapid drop has only occurred during recessions historically and reflects weakening freight, construction, and industrial demand, pointing to a substantial headwind to US GDP growth in H2 2025 (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Dec 7, 2025). The author also notes the AI trade is decoupled from these macro signals, a divergence traders can reference when assessing risk across cyclicals, high beta, and digital assets such as BTC and ETH (source: @KobeissiLetter, X, Dec 7, 2025).