Alt Season Not Ready as Bitcoin Drives Market Expansion: Trading Insights from Miles Deutscher
According to Miles Deutscher, the cryptocurrency market is not yet ready for an 'alt season,' as evidenced by the lack of relative strength in altcoins whenever Bitcoin ($BTC) retraces. Deutscher highlights that this trend is typical during Bitcoin's expansionary phase, suggesting that traders should remain cautious when allocating to altcoins until stronger relative performance is observed. This analysis indicates that Bitcoin dominance remains a central trading focus and that altcoin rallies may be delayed, impacting portfolio strategy and risk management for crypto traders (source: @milesdeutscher, Twitter, May 24, 2025).
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From a trading perspective, the current environment suggests limited upside for altcoins until Bitcoin completes its expansionary phase or shows signs of consolidation. Deutscher’s analysis aligns with historical patterns where Bitcoin’s dominance, currently at 54.3% as of May 24, 2025, at 12:00 PM UTC according to CoinMarketCap, tends to peak before altcoins gain momentum. For traders, this means focusing on BTC-related pairs such as BTC/ETH or BTC/BNB could provide safer opportunities compared to pure altcoin speculation. For instance, the BTC/ETH pair on Kraken showed a 0.3% uptick at 2:00 PM UTC on May 24, 2025, indicating slight relative strength in Bitcoin over Ethereum, with a 24-hour trading volume of $45 million. Additionally, on-chain metrics from Glassnode reveal that Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator stood at 0.55 on May 24, 2025, suggesting the market is in a 'belief' phase, where holders are still optimistic but not yet euphoric—a state often preceding altcoin rallies. Traders looking for 'Bitcoin cycle analysis' or 'altcoin breakout signals' should monitor these metrics closely. The lack of altcoin strength also correlates with broader stock market trends, as the S&P 500 index saw a modest 0.5% gain to 5,300 points by the close on May 23, 2025, per Yahoo Finance, reflecting stable risk appetite but no significant spillover into riskier crypto assets like altcoins.
Diving into technical indicators, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart was at 62 as of 3:00 PM UTC on May 24, 2025, on TradingView, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, supporting the view of a sustained expansionary phase. In contrast, Ethereum’s RSI lagged at 58, with lower momentum, and its 24-hour trading volume on Coinbase was $310 million compared to Bitcoin’s $980 million at the same timestamp. Altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) showed even weaker signals, with ADA/USD down 2.1% to $0.45 and SOL/USD down 1.9% to $165 on Binance at 4:00 PM UTC on May 24, 2025, with combined volumes under $200 million. These data points reinforce the narrative of Bitcoin’s dominance. Moreover, stock market correlations remain relevant, as crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) saw a 1.3% increase to $225 per share on May 23, 2025, at market close per NASDAQ data, mirroring Bitcoin’s stability but not translating into altcoin gains. Institutional money flow, tracked via Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) inflows, showed a net increase of $25 million on May 23, 2025, as reported by Grayscale’s official updates, while altcoin-focused funds saw negligible inflows. This suggests institutional preference for Bitcoin over altcoins, a trend traders must heed when assessing 'crypto institutional investment trends.'
Finally, the correlation between stock market movements and crypto assets remains evident but skewed toward Bitcoin. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index rose 0.7% to 16,800 points on May 23, 2025, at 8:00 PM UTC per Bloomberg data, often a leading indicator for crypto risk sentiment. However, this uptick failed to ignite altcoin rallies, as seen in the stagnant performance of ETH and BNB pairs against USD. For traders exploring 'stock market impact on crypto' or 'Bitcoin vs altcoin performance,' the current data suggests sticking to Bitcoin-centric strategies until altcoin relative strength improves. Monitoring on-chain activity and stock market risk appetite will be key to identifying the shift toward an alt season.
FAQ Section:
What does the current Bitcoin dominance mean for altcoin traders?
Bitcoin dominance at 54.3% as of May 24, 2025, indicates that BTC is capturing the majority of market attention and capital. For altcoin traders, this suggests a cautious approach, focusing on BTC pairs or waiting for dominance to decline before entering altcoin positions.
How can traders identify the start of an alt season?
Traders should watch for a drop in Bitcoin dominance below 50%, increased altcoin trading volumes, and positive price action during BTC retracements. On-chain metrics like rising altcoin wallet activity and institutional inflows into altcoin funds are also key signals to monitor.
Miles Deutscher
@milesdeutscherCrypto analyst. Busy finding the next 100x.