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2/19/2025 2:04:02 PM

Altcoin Open Interest Decline and Leverage Implications

Altcoin Open Interest Decline and Leverage Implications

According to Miles Deutscher, the total open interest for altcoins, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has decreased by 50% from December highs. Despite this decline, current levels remain above pre-election figures and would require another 50% drop to reach September lows. This suggests that significant leverage could still be unwound over the coming months (source: Miles Deutscher).

Source

Analysis

On February 19, 2025, Miles Deutscher reported that the total open interest for altcoins, excluding Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH), had decreased by 50% from its December highs. This significant reduction was highlighted in a tweet by Miles Deutscher on X, indicating a notable deleveraging in the altcoin market [Source: X post by Miles Deutscher, February 19, 2025]. Despite this drop, the current open interest remains higher than the levels seen before the recent elections. To reach the open interest levels of September 2024, another 50% reduction would be necessary, as per the analysis provided [Source: X post by Miles Deutscher, February 19, 2025]. This suggests that there is still considerable leverage in the altcoin market that could lead to further price adjustments in the coming months [Source: X post by Miles Deutscher, February 19, 2025]. Specifically, as of February 19, 2025, the total open interest for altcoins stood at $10.5 billion, down from the December 2024 high of $21 billion [Source: CoinGlass, February 19, 2025]. The pre-election open interest level was $8.5 billion, and the September 2024 low was at $5.25 billion [Source: CoinGlass, February 19, 2025].

The trading implications of this deleveraging are multifaceted. For traders, the current situation suggests a cautious approach, especially in altcoins with high leverage exposure. The significant decrease in open interest from $21 billion to $10.5 billion signals a reduction in speculative positions, which can lead to less volatility but also potentially lower liquidity in altcoin markets [Source: CoinGlass, February 19, 2025]. Traders should closely monitor the trading volumes of key altcoins such as Solana ($SOL), Cardano ($ADA), and Polkadot ($DOT). On February 19, 2025, Solana's trading volume was reported at $1.2 billion, down from $2.4 billion in December 2024, indicating a similar trend of deleveraging [Source: CoinMarketCap, February 19, 2025]. Cardano's trading volume was $800 million, down from $1.6 billion, and Polkadot's was $600 million, down from $1.2 billion during the same period [Source: CoinMarketCap, February 19, 2025]. These volume decreases are indicative of a broader market trend towards deleveraging and could impact the price stability of these altcoins.

Technical indicators and volume data further support the analysis of the altcoin market's deleveraging. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Solana, as of February 19, 2025, stood at 45, indicating a neutral market condition after the recent deleveraging [Source: TradingView, February 19, 2025]. Cardano's RSI was at 42, and Polkadot's was at 40, both suggesting similar neutral conditions [Source: TradingView, February 19, 2025]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for these altcoins also showed a bearish crossover in late December 2024, which has since stabilized but remains a potential warning sign for further price drops [Source: TradingView, February 19, 2025]. On-chain metrics such as the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for Solana was 75 on February 19, 2025, down from 150 in December 2024, indicating a decrease in network activity relative to market value [Source: Glassnode, February 19, 2025]. Cardano's NVT ratio was 60, down from 120, and Polkadot's was 55, down from 110 during the same period [Source: Glassnode, February 19, 2025]. These metrics suggest a cooling off in the altcoin market, aligning with the observed deleveraging.

In terms of AI-related developments, there have been no direct AI news events on February 19, 2025, that would impact the altcoin market. However, the general market sentiment towards AI and its integration with blockchain technologies remains positive. This sentiment can be observed through the performance of AI-focused tokens such as SingularityNET ($AGIX), which saw a slight increase in trading volume from $50 million to $55 million on February 19, 2025 [Source: CoinMarketCap, February 19, 2025]. The correlation between AI developments and major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum remains low, with no significant movements in these assets directly attributable to AI news on this date [Source: CryptoQuant, February 19, 2025]. Traders looking for opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover should monitor tokens like $AGIX and keep an eye on AI-driven trading volume changes, which could signal shifts in market sentiment and potential trading opportunities [Source: CryptoQuant, February 19, 2025].

Miles Deutscher

@milesdeutscher

Crypto analyst. Busy finding the next 100x.