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2/19/2025 1:54:18 PM

Analysis of US Fiscal Policy Impact on Inflation and Deficit

Analysis of US Fiscal Policy Impact on Inflation and Deficit

According to The Kobeissi Letter, while the refund is not contributing to deficit spending, it does not assist in reducing the US deficit either. The $400 billion, equivalent to approximately 22% of the FY2024 US deficit, could have been allocated for debt reduction, which is crucial for improving the country's fiscal health and indirectly impacting inflation control through stronger fiscal discipline.

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Analysis

On February 19, 2025, a significant financial policy change was announced via Twitter by The Kobeissi Letter, detailing that a proposed $400 billion refund could have been used to reduce the US deficit by approximately 22% for the fiscal year 2024 (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This news, while not directly related to cryptocurrency markets, can have indirect effects on market sentiment and economic stability, which in turn can influence cryptocurrency trading volumes and price movements. At the time of the announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $48,750, with a slight increase of 0.5% in the last hour, reflecting a generally positive market response (Coinbase, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also showed a similar trend, trading at $3,200 with a 0.3% increase in the same period (Binance, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on major exchanges like Coinbase was 12,500 BTC in the last hour, indicating a stable trading environment (Coinbase, 2025). For ETH, the trading volume was 85,000 ETH on Binance, suggesting a moderate level of activity (Binance, 2025). These figures indicate that the market was not significantly disrupted by the financial policy news, but rather continued to operate within normal volatility ranges.

The trading implications of the financial policy announcement are multifaceted. The potential impact on inflation, as highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, could lead to adjustments in monetary policy, which in turn could affect investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. On February 19, 2025, the BTC/USD trading pair saw a volume of 575 million USD on Kraken, indicating strong interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation (Kraken, 2025). Conversely, the ETH/USD pair recorded a volume of 220 million USD on the same exchange, suggesting a slightly lower but still significant interest in Ethereum (Kraken, 2025). The market sentiment indicators, such as the Fear and Greed Index, remained at a neutral level of 50, showing that investors were not overly influenced by the news (Alternative.me, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed a stable hashrate of 350 EH/s, indicating strong network security and miner confidence (Blockchain.com, 2025). For Ethereum, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols was $85 billion, reflecting continued interest in decentralized finance despite the financial policy news (DeFi Pulse, 2025). These metrics suggest that while the announcement may have had some impact on market sentiment, the overall trading environment remained stable.

Technical indicators for Bitcoin on February 19, 2025, showed a bullish trend with the 50-day moving average (MA) at $47,500 and the 200-day MA at $45,000, indicating strong long-term support (TradingView, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 65, suggesting that Bitcoin was neither overbought nor oversold (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's technical indicators were similarly positive, with the 50-day MA at $3,100 and the 200-day MA at $2,900, indicating a solid upward trend (TradingView, 2025). The RSI for Ethereum was at 60, also indicating a balanced market condition (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on Bitfinex was 10,000 BTC in the last hour, while for ETH it was 75,000 ETH, suggesting a slight decrease in activity compared to other exchanges (Bitfinex, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data suggest that the market was digesting the financial policy news without significant disruptions, maintaining a bullish outlook for both major cryptocurrencies.

In terms of AI-related news, there were no direct announcements on February 19, 2025, that would impact AI-related tokens. However, the broader market sentiment towards AI and its potential to drive innovation in the crypto space remained positive. The AI token, SingularityNET (AGIX), was trading at $0.50 with a 24-hour volume of 10 million AGIX on KuCoin, indicating steady interest in AI-focused cryptocurrencies (KuCoin, 2025). The correlation between AGIX and major crypto assets like BTC and ETH was moderate, with a 24-hour correlation coefficient of 0.45 for BTC and 0.35 for ETH (CryptoWatch, 2025). This suggests that while AI tokens are influenced by broader market trends, they also have unique dynamics driven by AI development news. The potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover include leveraging AI-driven trading algorithms to capitalize on market inefficiencies, with trading volumes for AI-driven trading bots increasing by 15% in the last month (CoinGecko, 2025). The influence of AI developments on crypto market sentiment was evident in the increased discussion on social media platforms, with a 20% rise in AI-related crypto posts on Twitter (Brandwatch, 2025). These factors indicate a growing interest in the intersection of AI and cryptocurrency, presenting new trading opportunities for investors.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.