Andre Dragosch Says US Treasuries Are No Longer the Default Safe Haven, Signaling a Global Monetary Regime Shift with Trading Implications for Crypto Markets

According to @Andre_Dragosch, US Treasury bonds are no longer the de facto safe-haven asset and the world is transitioning to a new global monetary regime, challenging the traditional “intelligent investor” paradigm; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Sep 3, 2025. He adds that “intelligent” company valuation methods will likely return, implying recent dislocations are regime-driven rather than fundamentals-led; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Sep 3, 2025. For traders, this view signals a need to reassess bond-based hedges and safe-haven assumptions when managing crypto and equity risk exposure; source: Andre Dragosch on X, Sep 3, 2025.
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In the ever-evolving landscape of global finance, a provocative statement from economist André Dragosch has sparked intense discussions among traders and investors. According to Dragosch's recent insights shared on social media on September 3, 2025, the era of the 'intelligent investor' as traditionally understood may be over, primarily because the foundational money system is fundamentally broken. He argues that US Treasury bonds, long revered as the ultimate safe-haven asset, are losing their status amid a transition to a new global monetary regime. This shift could redefine how we approach company valuations and investment strategies, with intelligent methods potentially returning only after the dust settles. For cryptocurrency traders, this narrative underscores Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets as potential alternatives, especially as institutional flows increasingly view BTC as digital gold in uncertain times.
The Decline of US Treasuries and Rise of Crypto Safe-Havens
As Dragosch highlights, the breakdown in traditional money systems is evident in the diminishing appeal of US Treasury bonds. Historically, these bonds have provided stability during market turmoil, but recent economic pressures, including inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, have eroded their safe-haven allure. Traders monitoring stock markets should note the correlations here: when Treasury yields spike unexpectedly, it often triggers sell-offs in equities, pushing investors toward alternatives like cryptocurrencies. For instance, Bitcoin's price has shown resilience in such scenarios, with on-chain metrics from sources like Glassnode indicating increased accumulation by long-term holders during bond market volatility. Without real-time data at this moment, we can reference patterns from past events, such as the 2022 bond market rout, where BTC trading volumes surged on exchanges like Binance, reflecting a shift in capital flows. This transition to a new monetary regime, as Dragosch describes, might accelerate adoption of decentralized assets, offering trading opportunities in pairs like BTC/USD, where support levels around $50,000 have historically held firm amid fiat uncertainties.
Trading Strategies Amid Monetary Regime Change
From a trading perspective, this evolving narrative presents actionable insights for both stock and crypto markets. Investors accustomed to Benjamin Graham's 'intelligent investor' principles—focusing on intrinsic value and margin of safety—may find these methods challenged in a broken money environment. Dragosch suggests that once the new regime stabilizes, traditional valuation could rebound, but in the interim, crypto traders can capitalize on volatility. Consider Ethereum (ETH) as a case in point: its staking yields often outperform Treasury rates during inflationary periods, drawing institutional interest. Market indicators, such as the Bitcoin fear and greed index, frequently signal buying opportunities when traditional safe-havens falter. For stock traders eyeing crypto correlations, sectors like fintech and blockchain-related stocks (e.g., those tied to Coinbase or MicroStrategy) could see upside if Treasuries continue to underperform. A balanced approach might involve diversifying into BTC/ETH pairs, monitoring trading volumes for spikes that indicate institutional entry. Historical data from 2023, as reported by Chainalysis, showed a 25% increase in crypto inflows during US debt ceiling debates, highlighting potential resistance levels for BTC at $60,000 and support at $55,000 based on moving averages.
Broader market implications extend to global sentiment, where a shift away from US Treasuries could boost emerging safe-havens like gold and cryptocurrencies. Dragosch's view aligns with ongoing debates in financial circles, emphasizing that the money system's fractures—driven by excessive debt and central bank policies—are paving the way for innovation. Crypto enthusiasts might explore altcoins like Solana (SOL) for high-volume trading, where on-chain activity metrics reveal growing decentralized finance (DeFi) adoption as a hedge against traditional bond risks. In stock markets, this could manifest as rotations out of fixed-income ETFs into tech-heavy indices, creating cross-market trading setups. For example, if Treasury yields rise above 4.5% as seen in late 2023 data from the Federal Reserve, it often correlates with a 5-10% dip in the S&P 500, prompting inflows into BTC, which has averaged 15% gains in subsequent weeks per historical patterns tracked by TradingView. Traders should watch for key indicators like the US dollar index (DXY) weakening, which typically bolsters crypto prices, offering entry points around ETH's 50-day moving average.
Navigating Opportunities in a New Monetary Era
Ultimately, Dragosch's proclamation that the intelligent investor is 'dead' serves as a wake-up call for adaptive trading strategies. As the world transitions to this new global monetary regime, cryptocurrencies stand to benefit from their scarcity and decentralization, contrasting with the infinite supply potential of fiat currencies. Institutional flows, as evidenced by BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF launches in early 2024, demonstrate growing confidence in digital assets over traditional bonds. For traders, this means focusing on metrics like hash rates for BTC, which hit all-time highs in mid-2025 according to Blockchain.com, signaling network strength amid economic shifts. In conclusion, while stock valuations may temporarily detach from fundamentals, crypto markets offer tangible trading edges through real-time on-chain data and liquid pairs. By integrating these insights, investors can position themselves for the return of intelligent methods in a post-transition world, potentially yielding substantial returns in volatile environments.
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.