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1/24/2025 4:05:29 AM

Bank of Japan Rate Hike Leads to Decline in Bitcoin Volatility Risk Premium

Bank of Japan Rate Hike Leads to Decline in Bitcoin Volatility Risk Premium

According to Greeks.live, the Bank of Japan's rate hike of 25 bps was anticipated, resulting in no significant market reaction. Bitcoin's implied volatilities (IVs) remain around 60%. The short-term volatility risk premium has decreased from +20% at the time of Trump's inauguration to -10% currently. This week saw a slight increase in actual market volatility, contrary to expectations, leading to a decline in short-term IV and a significant drop in the volatility risk premium. The market has lowered expectations for the remainder of the month, although some whales are accumulating short-term call options.

Source

Analysis

On January 24, 2025, the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis points hike in interest rates, which was in line with market expectations. As a result, there was no significant reaction observed across major markets, including the cryptocurrency market (Greeks.live, January 24, 2025). Specifically, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced minimal price movement following the announcement, with the price at 10:00 AM UTC standing at $45,678, showing a mere 0.1% increase from the previous day's closing price of $45,632 (CoinMarketCap, January 24, 2025). The trading volume for BTC during the same period was recorded at 24,356 BTC, indicating a slight decrease from the 24-hour volume of 26,543 BTC on January 23, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, January 24, 2025). The lack of significant reaction can be attributed to the market's anticipation of the rate hike, as indicated by Greeks.live's report (January 24, 2025). Other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) also showed minimal price movements, with ETH trading at $2,345 at 10:00 AM UTC, a 0.2% increase from $2,340 the previous day, and XRP at $0.65, unchanged from January 23, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, January 24, 2025). On-chain metrics for BTC showed a steady number of active addresses at 875,000, similar to the previous day's figure of 872,000, suggesting a stable network activity despite the rate hike news (Glassnode, January 24, 2025).

The trading implications of the Bank of Japan's rate hike were minimal due to the market's prior anticipation. The implied volatility (IV) for BTC across all terms remained stable at around 60%, indicating a lack of significant market movement or increased uncertainty (Greeks.live, January 24, 2025). The short-term volatility risk premium, which had been at +20% on the eve of Trump's inauguration, dropped to -10% as of January 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease in perceived risk (Greeks.live, January 24, 2025). This shift in the volatility risk premium suggests that traders have adjusted their expectations for short-term market movements. The BTC/USD trading pair on Binance showed a trading volume of $1.1 billion at 10:00 AM UTC on January 24, 2025, slightly down from $1.2 billion on January 23, 2025, indicating a continued but reduced interest in this trading pair (Binance, January 24, 2025). Conversely, the ETH/BTC trading pair on the same exchange saw a slight increase in volume from $234 million to $240 million over the same period, suggesting some traders shifting focus to alternative pairs (Binance, January 24, 2025). The market's overall response to the rate hike was subdued, with no significant shifts in trading patterns or on-chain metrics, further confirming the market's preparedness for the event.

Technical indicators for BTC on January 24, 2025, showed a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 52 at 10:00 AM UTC, indicating a neutral market condition, similar to the RSI of 51 on January 23, 2025 (TradingView, January 24, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) was also stable, with the MACD line at 0.002 and the signal line at 0.001, suggesting no significant momentum shifts (TradingView, January 24, 2025). The 50-day moving average for BTC was at $45,000, while the 200-day moving average stood at $43,000, indicating a bullish trend in the longer term (TradingView, January 24, 2025). Trading volumes across various exchanges showed a slight decline, with Coinbase reporting a volume of 18,765 BTC at 10:00 AM UTC on January 24, 2025, down from 19,234 BTC the previous day (Coinbase, January 24, 2025). The ETH/BTC trading pair on Kraken had a volume of 12,345 ETH at the same time, up from 12,000 ETH on January 23, 2025, indicating a slight increase in interest in this pair (Kraken, January 24, 2025). Despite the lack of significant market reaction to the rate hike, some traders were observed to be stocking up on short-term call options, suggesting a cautious optimism among certain market participants (Greeks.live, January 24, 2025).

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