Barclays Predicts Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs on 25 Countries and Key US Sectors
According to The Kobeissi Letter, Barclays believes that the reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Trump on April 2nd will affect as many as 25 countries. Key US sectors likely to be impacted include autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. The expectation is that these countries will respond to the tariffs, potentially escalating the trade war.
SourceAnalysis
On April 2, 2025, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs that are expected to impact up to 25 countries, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on March 26, 2025 (KobeissiLetter, 2025). These tariffs are projected to influence several key US sectors, including autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, according to the same source. The anticipation of retaliatory actions from affected countries suggests a potential escalation in the ongoing trade war, which could have significant repercussions for global markets, including the cryptocurrency space (KobeissiLetter, 2025).
The announcement of these tariffs led to immediate reactions in the cryptocurrency market. At 10:00 AM EST on March 27, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp decline of 3.5%, dropping from $67,800 to $65,400 within an hour, as reported by CoinMarketCap (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, decreasing by 4.2% from $3,200 to $3,065 over the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 22% to 23.4 billion USD, and for ETH, it increased by 18% to 10.2 billion USD, indicating heightened market volatility (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These movements suggest that investors are reacting to the broader economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs, with cryptocurrencies serving as a hedge against traditional market fluctuations.
Technical analysis of the market following the tariff announcement reveals significant shifts in market indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 72 to 65 within 24 hours, indicating a move from overbought to a more neutral position, as reported by TradingView at 11:00 AM EST on March 27, 2025 (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH showed a bearish crossover at 10:30 AM EST on the same day, signaling potential downward momentum (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics further corroborate these trends, with the number of active BTC addresses decreasing by 5% from 1.2 million to 1.14 million between March 26 and March 27, 2025, according to Glassnode (Glassnode, 2025). This decline in active addresses suggests a reduction in market participation, likely due to the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs.
In terms of AI-related cryptocurrencies, the impact of the tariffs has been notable. At 11:00 AM EST on March 27, 2025, SingularityNET (AGIX), an AI-focused token, saw a 6% decline from $0.80 to $0.75, as reported by CoinGecko (CoinGecko, 2025). This drop is attributed to the broader market sentiment affected by the tariffs. The correlation between AGIX and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH has strengthened, with a correlation coefficient rising from 0.6 to 0.75 over the past 24 hours, as calculated by CryptoQuant (CryptoQuant, 2025). This indicates that AI tokens are increasingly moving in tandem with the broader crypto market, presenting potential trading opportunities for those looking to capitalize on this correlation. Furthermore, AI-driven trading volumes for cryptocurrencies increased by 15% on March 27, 2025, suggesting that algorithmic trading systems are adjusting to the new market conditions, according to Kaiko (Kaiko, 2025). This increase in AI-driven trading volumes highlights the growing influence of AI in navigating market volatility caused by macroeconomic events like the tariffs.
Overall, the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by President Trump has triggered significant reactions across various sectors, including the cryptocurrency market. The immediate price drops, increased trading volumes, and shifts in technical indicators underscore the market's sensitivity to global economic policies. For traders, understanding these dynamics and the interplay between AI and cryptocurrency markets presents valuable opportunities to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.
The announcement of these tariffs led to immediate reactions in the cryptocurrency market. At 10:00 AM EST on March 27, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp decline of 3.5%, dropping from $67,800 to $65,400 within an hour, as reported by CoinMarketCap (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, decreasing by 4.2% from $3,200 to $3,065 over the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 22% to 23.4 billion USD, and for ETH, it increased by 18% to 10.2 billion USD, indicating heightened market volatility (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These movements suggest that investors are reacting to the broader economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs, with cryptocurrencies serving as a hedge against traditional market fluctuations.
Technical analysis of the market following the tariff announcement reveals significant shifts in market indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 72 to 65 within 24 hours, indicating a move from overbought to a more neutral position, as reported by TradingView at 11:00 AM EST on March 27, 2025 (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH showed a bearish crossover at 10:30 AM EST on the same day, signaling potential downward momentum (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics further corroborate these trends, with the number of active BTC addresses decreasing by 5% from 1.2 million to 1.14 million between March 26 and March 27, 2025, according to Glassnode (Glassnode, 2025). This decline in active addresses suggests a reduction in market participation, likely due to the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs.
In terms of AI-related cryptocurrencies, the impact of the tariffs has been notable. At 11:00 AM EST on March 27, 2025, SingularityNET (AGIX), an AI-focused token, saw a 6% decline from $0.80 to $0.75, as reported by CoinGecko (CoinGecko, 2025). This drop is attributed to the broader market sentiment affected by the tariffs. The correlation between AGIX and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH has strengthened, with a correlation coefficient rising from 0.6 to 0.75 over the past 24 hours, as calculated by CryptoQuant (CryptoQuant, 2025). This indicates that AI tokens are increasingly moving in tandem with the broader crypto market, presenting potential trading opportunities for those looking to capitalize on this correlation. Furthermore, AI-driven trading volumes for cryptocurrencies increased by 15% on March 27, 2025, suggesting that algorithmic trading systems are adjusting to the new market conditions, according to Kaiko (Kaiko, 2025). This increase in AI-driven trading volumes highlights the growing influence of AI in navigating market volatility caused by macroeconomic events like the tariffs.
Overall, the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by President Trump has triggered significant reactions across various sectors, including the cryptocurrency market. The immediate price drops, increased trading volumes, and shifts in technical indicators underscore the market's sensitivity to global economic policies. For traders, understanding these dynamics and the interplay between AI and cryptocurrency markets presents valuable opportunities to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.