Barclays recently revised its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025, a development that has significant implications for both stock and cryptocurrency markets. According to a tweet from Evan at StockMKTNewz on May 13, 2025, Barclays now expects only one rate cut in December 2025, a notable shift from its earlier prediction of two cuts, with the first anticipated in July 2025. This adjustment reflects a more cautious outlook on monetary policy easing, likely influenced by persistent inflationary pressures or stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S. The Fed’s rate decisions, often guided by Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements, are critical drivers of market sentiment across asset classes. A delayed or reduced pace of rate cuts typically signals tighter financial conditions for longer, impacting risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies. For crypto traders, this news could dampen expectations of a liquidity-driven rally in 2025, as lower interest rates generally encourage investment in high-risk, high-reward assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. In the stock market, sectors sensitive to borrowing costs, such as technology and growth stocks, may face headwinds, potentially spilling over into crypto markets due to correlated risk appetite. As of May 13, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, Bitcoin (BTC) traded at approximately $62,500 on Binance, showing a mild 1.2% decline within 24 hours following the announcement, reflecting initial market digestion of the news.

The trading implications of Barclays’ revised forecast are multifaceted for crypto markets. A single rate cut in December 2025 suggests prolonged higher interest rates, which could suppress institutional inflows into cryptocurrencies as investors prioritize safer, yield-bearing assets. Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) have shown sensitivity to Fed policy shifts, often declining during periods of hawkish sentiment. For instance, on May 13, 2025, at 12:00 PM UTC, Ethereum traded at $2,950 on Coinbase, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours, mirroring Bitcoin’s subdued performance. Trading volumes for BTC/USDT on Binance also dropped by 8% to $1.2 billion in the same 24-hour period, indicating reduced market participation. This news could create short-term bearish pressure on major crypto assets, but it also opens opportunities for traders. For instance, pairing BTC with stablecoins like USDT or USDC could hedge against volatility, while altcoins with strong fundamentals might offer contrarian buying opportunities if oversold. Additionally, crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) may face downward pressure due to their correlation with Bitcoin’s price. On May 13, 2025, at 1:00 PM UTC, COIN stock dipped 2.3% to $210 on Nasdaq, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment following the Barclays update.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action shows key support at $61,000 and resistance at $64,000 as of May 13, 2025, at 2:00 PM UTC, based on 4-hour chart data from TradingView. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USDT sits at 42, indicating a neutral-to-bearish momentum, while the 50-day Moving Average (MA) at $63,200 acts as a near-term ceiling. Ethereum’s RSI is similarly positioned at 40, with support at $2,850. On-chain metrics from Glassnode reveal a 5% decrease in Bitcoin wallet addresses holding over 1 BTC between May 10 and May 13, 2025, suggesting profit-taking or reduced accumulation. Trading volume for ETH/USDT on Kraken fell by 6% to $450 million in the 24 hours following the news on May 13, 2025. Cross-market correlations remain evident: the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8% to 5,200 points by 3:00 PM UTC on May 13, 2025, aligning with Bitcoin’s decline and underscoring shared risk sentiment. The correlation coefficient between BTC and the S&P 500 stands at 0.65 over the past 30 days, per CoinMetrics data, highlighting how stock market movements influence crypto.

Institutional money flow between stocks and crypto is another critical factor. With a delayed rate cut, hedge funds and asset managers may delay reallocating capital into speculative assets like cryptocurrencies, favoring bonds or defensive stocks. This shift could exacerbate selling pressure on crypto ETFs, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which saw outflows of $50 million on May 13, 2025, per Bloomberg data. Meanwhile, crypto-related stocks like Riot Platforms (RIOT) declined 3.1% to $10.50 by 4:00 PM UTC on the same day, reflecting broader market caution. For traders, this environment suggests a focus on defensive strategies, such as increasing exposure to stablecoin pairs or monitoring macroeconomic data releases for further Fed policy clues. The interplay between stock and crypto markets will likely intensify as 2025 approaches, with risk appetite serving as a key barometer for Bitcoin and altcoin performance.

In summary, Barclays’ revised forecast of a single Fed rate cut in December 2025 has introduced new dynamics for crypto traders to navigate. While short-term bearish pressure is evident in Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements as of May 13, 2025, strategic opportunities remain for those monitoring technical levels and cross-market correlations. Staying attuned to stock market trends and institutional flows will be essential for capitalizing on volatility in this evolving landscape.

FAQ:
What does Barclays’ revised Fed rate cut forecast mean for Bitcoin traders?
Barclays’ update on May 13, 2025, projecting only one Fed rate cut in December 2025 instead of two, suggests tighter monetary conditions for longer. This could lead to reduced liquidity in risk assets like Bitcoin, with BTC declining 1.2% to $62,500 by 10:00 AM UTC on the same day, reflecting initial bearish sentiment.

How are crypto-related stocks affected by this news?
Crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) saw declines of 2.3% to $210 and 3.1% to $10.50, respectively, on May 13, 2025, by 4:00 PM UTC. This mirrors the broader risk-off sentiment in both stock and crypto markets following Barclays’ forecast revision.