According to @glassnode, the unrealized loss in the Bitcoin (BTC) market at $70K equates to approximately 16% of the market cap, reflecting a pain structure similar to early May 2022. The analysis highlights that while bearish sentiment persists, unrealized losses at $107K represent only 1.3% of Bitcoin's market cap, far below the thresholds typically seen in mild or severe bear markets. This suggests the market pain has not yet reached levels characteristic of a true bear phase.

According to Glassnode, on-chain investor behavior observed around Halloween indicated a potential shift into a bear market. Over the next approximately 100 days, cryptocurrency prices experienced a significant contraction of 45%. Glassnode now revisits key on-chain metrics to evaluate the depth and duration of this bear market phase, providing insights into investor sentiment and market trends.

According to @glassnode, the Bitcoin market is experiencing a bear regime characterized by a high Relative Unrealized Loss, which measures the USD value of underwater coins relative to market cap. At $60k, this metric reached approximately 24%, surpassing the bull-bear market transition threshold and indicating a potential capitulation process. However, the market remains below extreme capitulation levels observed above 50%, suggesting further downside risk remains.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the current crypto bear market has lasted 122 days (98th percentile) with a 49.6% drawdown, based on his latest dataset (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X). He notes many indicators are comparable to prior bear market bottoms and that there is significant 'duration pain,' but aggregate profit and loss metrics have not fully capitulated, so he believes the final cycle bottom has not yet occurred (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X). He introduced a new cycle bottom probability model to reduce guesswork in timing the low; it has only ticked up slightly and will be updated regularly, indicating the market may be very close but not fully there yet (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X).

According to @CryptoMichNL, Bitcoin's daily RSI has fallen to 18, a level he notes has only appeared during the August 2023 drop, the 2020 COVID crash, and the November 2018 low, highlighting extreme oversold conditions historically tied to capitulation events (source: @CryptoMichNL on X). He interprets the current reading as consistent with capitulation and a bear market low setup for traders to watch (source: @CryptoMichNL on X).

According to @CryptoMichNL, the BTC to gold valuation has fallen below 30, a level he associates with historic bear market low zones (source: @CryptoMichNL). He cautions that a second leg down remains possible despite this signal, citing similar structures in 2022 during the November breakdown and in 2018 with further downside continuation (source: @CryptoMichNL). He also notes the production cost of one BTC is really close, underscoring caution for traders around potential bear market lows and drawdown risks (source: @CryptoMichNL).

According to @milesdeutscher, the crypto market is at a critical inflection with only two outcomes ahead, either a first ever supercycle that breaks the 4-year cycle in 2026 or a bear market, outlining a binary regime for traders to monitor (source: @milesdeutscher on X, Jan 13, 2026). According to @milesdeutscher, no specific price levels, catalysts, or timing guidance beyond the 2026 cycle reference were provided, indicating a top-down regime call rather than a data-driven forecast (source: @milesdeutscher on X, Jan 13, 2026). According to @milesdeutscher, this binary framing signals the need for parallel bullish and bearish scenario planning and cautious positioning until clearer confirmation appears (source: @milesdeutscher on X, Jan 13, 2026).

According to @CryptoMichNL, a new New Era Finance episode features Dan Held discussing what people get wrong about the Bitcoin (BTC) cycle and whether the market is currently Bear or Bull, with the episode link provided for viewers to watch (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Dec 23, 2025). The post highlights that the episode is designed to address the Bull vs Bear question directly, a core input for BTC cycle positioning for market participants, and invites users to subscribe for ongoing updates (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Dec 23, 2025). The author also notes that weekly episodes will return next year, signaling continued coverage of BTC market narratives relevant for traders tracking cycle dynamics (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Dec 23, 2025).

According to @CoinMarketCap, CryptoQuant analysts state Bitcoin is in a bear market as demand growth has fallen below trend since October, indicating weakening demand momentum, source: CoinMarketCap Twitter post citing CryptoQuant, dated Dec 22, 2025. According to @CoinMarketCap, CryptoQuant highlights downside risk levels at 70,000 dollars and potentially 56,000 dollars in the second half of 2026, which defines key BTC risk thresholds for traders, source: CoinMarketCap Twitter post citing CryptoQuant, dated Dec 22, 2025.

According to Charles Edwards, Bitcoin needs to move beyond semantics toward real problem-solving and reach consensus on which signature methods to use for BIP-360 to address quantum-related security concerns, Source: Charles Edwards on X, Dec 17, 2025. He warns that failure to do so could trigger the biggest quantum-led bear market Bitcoin has ever seen, Source: Charles Edwards on X, Dec 17, 2025. He adds that while engagement on the topic is increasing, progress remains insufficient, Source: Charles Edwards on X, Dec 17, 2025.

According to Altcoin Daily, the current crypto market cycle is the "weirdest" they have experienced across multiple bear and bull markets, signaling a qualitative sentiment observation rather than a data-backed call (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Dec 11, 2025). For traders, the post adds context on sentiment but includes no prices, technical levels, or catalysts and should not be used as a standalone trading input (source: @AltcoinDaily on X, Dec 11, 2025).

According to @stonecoldpat0, teams and products that win define a clear end-goal and maintain alignment through bull and bear cycles, pivoting only when new information makes the path to that goal easier, a discipline traders can mirror to reduce overtrading and drawdowns. Source: @stonecoldpat0, Twitter, Dec 3, 2025. For traders, this translates to running a thesis-driven plan with predefined invalidation and adjusting positions only on material new data rather than commentary noise, helping preserve edge across volatile market regimes. Source: @stonecoldpat0, Twitter, Dec 3, 2025.

According to @MI_Algos, FireCharts shows thin liquidity on both sides of the order book, creating a setup for elevated volatility and opportunity. Source: @MI_Algos on X, Dec 2, 2025. According to @MI_Algos, market conditions should be treated as a bear market until proven otherwise. Source: @MI_Algos on X, Dec 2, 2025. According to @MI_Algos, traders should avoid greed and take profits quickly in this environment. Source: @MI_Algos on X, Dec 2, 2025.

According to @RhythmicAnalyst, recent posts mislabeling ZEC and other altcoin pullbacks as bear markets overlook that counter-trend moves during an uptrend are detours and delays, not reversals, source: @RhythmicAnalyst. According to @RhythmicAnalyst, traders should avoid premature bear-market calls when the broader trend is up and treat pullbacks as counter-trend retracements within the prevailing trend, source: @RhythmicAnalyst. According to @RhythmicAnalyst, better education on how price trends work is needed to correctly classify these moves for trade positioning and timing, source: @RhythmicAnalyst.

According to Bernstein Research, the crypto market is still searching for a bottom, signaling ongoing downside risk and elevated volatility for traders (source: Bernstein Research). Bernstein Research states that major operating businesses are reshaping their models toward new revenue lines in ways not seen in prior corrections, indicating structural shifts in sector fundamentals (source: Bernstein Research). Bernstein Research indicates this transformation may drive wider performance dispersion across tokens and listed crypto equities, making identifiable new revenue streams and improving cash-flow durability key selection factors for trade setups and risk management (source: Bernstein Research).

According to Altcoin Daily, the account has been in crypto for 8 years and has endured multiple bull and bear markets, indicating cycle-tested experience, source: Altcoin Daily. The post states that wealth will flow to those who remain during the hard and boring periods, emphasizing persistence through volatility, source: Altcoin Daily. The author describes the current stage as early and painful but ultimately rewarding, signaling a long-horizon stance rather than short-term trading guidance, source: Altcoin Daily. The message does not mention specific assets, price levels, or timeframes, providing no direct trading signals, source: Altcoin Daily.

According to @CryptoMichNL, current crypto market activity feels like a ghost town, a setup he says he has only witnessed twice before during late 2019 near the final leg of that cycle’s bear market and in early 2023, both of which preceded strong uptrends source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Nov 30, 2025. He adds that these past occurrences were among the best periods to accumulate positions and that the present phase appears similar for Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, implying an accumulation-focused strategy may be warranted now source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Nov 30, 2025.

According to @AltcoinDaily, Michael Saylor responded to the prompt "What if Bitcoin price stops going up?" by stating "Winter's not coming back" and asserting that "the bear market won't happen" (source: Altcoin Daily post on X dated Nov 29, 2025). According to @AltcoinDaily, the post communicates an explicitly bullish view on BTC that rejects the prospect of a renewed bear cycle (source: Altcoin Daily post on X dated Nov 29, 2025). According to @AltcoinDaily, the message is a sentiment statement and does not include supporting data, on-chain metrics, or price levels to substantiate the claim (source: Altcoin Daily post on X dated Nov 29, 2025).

According to @cas_abbe, WLFI, described as Trump’s own project, is promoting a token with a market cap under $5 million, which the post characterizes as evidence of a real and intense bear market phase, calling it peak bear market vibes; traders may view this as a risk-off sentiment cue for micro-cap altcoins and liquidity-sensitive names (source: @cas_abbe on X, Nov 25, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the total crypto market cap peaked at a record USD 4.27 trillion on October 6 and has since dropped below USD 3 trillion as of November 20, a decline of USD 1.3 trillion over 45 days, source: @KobeissiLetter. This equates to roughly a 30 percent drawdown and an average loss of about USD 28.9 billion per day based on the figures provided, source: @KobeissiLetter. The move is described as one of the fastest moving crypto bear markets on record, source: @KobeissiLetter.