Bitcoin: 65% Odds of Sub-$50,000 Drop in 2026

Bitcoin now holds a record 65% probability of dropping below $50,000 in 2026, according to fresh probability models cited by @KobeissiLetter. At $60969.34 the 4-hour chart shows price locked in a bearish trend beneath EMA50 resistance at $68386.59 and EMA200 at $74200.63, with RSI(14) at 25.0 marking oversold conditions and MACD at -2442.5 confirming a death cross; price remains inside the Bollinger bands, pressing toward lower support at $60160.27 and feeding into updated BTC price prediction models that price in elevated crypto market crash risk.