Bitcoin Price Surge to $107K Amid Geopolitical Relief and Fed Focus

Bitcoin surged to near $107,000, with the BTC price reaching $107,350 as of the latest data, marking a 0.691% increase over the past 24 hours and a high of $107,653.91. This upward momentum, driven by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel, lifted the broader cryptocurrency market, as noted by Francisco Rodrigues. The relief rally reduced immediate fears of an oil supply crunch, encouraging traders to re-enter risk assets, with the CD20 index gaining 1%. However, Susannah Streeter of Hargreaves Lansdown cautioned that doubts persist regarding the truce's stability, citing a leaked U.S. intelligence report that questioned the effectiveness of strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities, potentially limiting further gains. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume exceeded $798 million, reflecting heightened activity as prices rebounded from a low of $106,304.78.

Federal Reserve Influence and Macroeconomic Data

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to House lawmakers added fuel to the rally, as he emphasized a patient approach to interest-rate cuts, highlighting elevated inflation and potential tariff pressures. Bitunix analysts stated that this "wait-and-see" stance introduces short-term uncertainty but supports risk assets overall. U.S. consumer confidence softened, pushing two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78% and increasing the perceived probability of a July rate cut to approximately 20%, according to the CME FedWatch tool, up from 13% a week earlier. Powell's upcoming Senate testimony today is critical, with traders monitoring for any policy shifts amid President Trump's calls for lower rates. Key data releases include May durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. ET today, with estimates at 8.5% month-over-month, and Q1 GDP figures expected to show a contraction of -0.2% quarter-over-quarter.

Derivatives Positioning and Trading Strategies

Cryptocurrency derivatives markets indicate a neutral stance ahead of the June 27 options expiry, with Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, reporting sales of straddles and short puts near $105,000 and $100,000, suggesting expectations of range-bound price action between $100,000 and $105,000. Conversely, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September expiries points to a modest bullish inclination. Bitcoin's annualized funding rate on Binance stood at 5.2626%, while the three-month BTC futures basis on offshore exchanges advanced to 5%, though it remains below May highs above 7%. For Ethereum, ETH traded at $2,430.65, up 0.192% in 24 hours, with a high of $2,441.37 and volume of $12 million, but its ratio to BTC declined by 1.78% to 0.02269. Traders should watch for a breakout above $108,000 as resistance, with support near $106,000; a failure to hold could test $100,000.

Other altcoins showed mixed performances: Solana SOL surged 2.718% to $146.99 with a 24-hour high of $147.35, while XRP gained 5.499% to $2.1986. The XRP/BTC pair is forming a falling wedge pattern, indicating a potential bullish reversal if it breaks out. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded daily net inflows of $588.6 million, with cumulative flows reaching $47.58 billion and total holdings at 1.23 million BTC, according to Farside Investors. Similarly, spot Ethereum ETFs saw $71.3 million in inflows, supporting market sentiment. Declining risks in DeFi loans, with high-risk positions down $242 million over two weeks, further reduce liquidation cascade threats, creating a favorable environment for strategic entries near support levels.