Bitcoin Approaches $107K Amid Geopolitical Relief and Fed Watch

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to near $107,000 on Wednesday, reaching an intraday high of $107,830.26, as markets responded positively to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel that eased immediate fears of an oil supply disruption and boosted global risk assets. According to Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, the initial optimism lifted equities and cryptocurrencies, with BTC gaining 1.36% over the past 24 hours to trade at $107,052.04 by the latest data, while Ethereum (ETH) dipped slightly to $2,409.73. However, Streeter cautioned that doubts linger over the truce's durability, citing leaked U.S. intelligence reports that questioned the effectiveness of strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities, potentially reigniting tensions and capping gains. This rally reflects broader market sentiment, where the CoinDesk 20 index—a benchmark for major cryptocurrencies—rose 0.56%, indicating a synchronized uptick across digital assets as traders repositioned for reduced geopolitical risk.

Fed's Rate Cut Stance and Macro Data Influence Crypto Sentiment

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before House lawmakers on Tuesday underscored a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, emphasizing persistent inflation and potential tariff pressures, which injected short-term uncertainty into markets. Bitunix analysts noted in an emailed statement that Powell's 'wait-and-see' strategy supports risk assets like Bitcoin but warrants close monitoring of upcoming inflation data and tariff developments. Concurrently, softer U.S. consumer-confidence data pushed two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78%, raising the probability of a July rate cut to about 20% as per the CME FedWatch tool, up from 13% a week ago. On Polymarket, traders priced in an 18% chance, reflecting heightened sensitivity to Fed policy shifts. With Powell set to testify before the Senate Banking Committee later today, crypto traders are eyeing his remarks for cues on monetary policy direction, especially as political pressures mount from figures like former President Trump advocating for lower rates. This macro backdrop could amplify volatility, with BTC's immediate support near $106,300 and resistance at $108,000, based on recent price action.

Derivatives and Technical Analysis Signal Range-Bound Trading

Crypto derivatives markets indicate a neutral to mildly bullish outlook, with traders positioning for tight price ranges ahead of key expiries. Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, highlighted that straddle sales and short puts around $105,000 and $100,000 for the June 27 expiry suggest expectations of limited movement, while call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September points to underlying bullish sentiment. The annualized three-month BTC futures basis on offshore exchanges edged up to 5%, below May's peak of over 7%, with ETH showing similar patterns, while perpetual funding rates on Binance for BTC stood at 0.0048% (annualized 5.26%), indicating moderate positivity. Technically, the XRP/BTC pair on Binance is trading in a falling wedge pattern, characterized by converging trendlines and lower highs, signaling a potential bullish reversal if a breakout occurs. Current data shows XRP at $2.1003 against BTC, with 24-hour volume of 376,797.80 XRP, reinforcing this technical setup as a key watchpoint for altcoin opportunities.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain robust, with daily net inflows of $588.6 million reported by Farside Investors, bringing cumulative holdings to $47.58 billion and total BTC under management to approximately 1.23 million. Similarly, spot ETH ETFs saw $71.3 million in daily inflows, accumulating to $4.09 billion. Upcoming token unlocks, such as Optimism (OP) releasing $17.13 million worth on June 30, could introduce selling pressure, while events like the Core blockchain's Theseus hard fork on June 25 may spur volatility. Macro events today include Powell's Senate testimony and the NATO summit, with durable goods orders and GDP data due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET, which could sway crypto correlations with traditional markets. Traders should watch for breakouts above $107,500 in BTC for bullish entries, with stop-losses below $106,000 to manage downside risks from geopolitical or economic surprises.