Bitcoin Nears $107K as Ceasefire Boosts Risk Assets, Powell Testimony in Focus

Crypto markets rallied sharply on Wednesday, with Bitcoin (BTC) climbing to near $107,000 as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel eased geopolitical fears and spurred inflows into risk assets. As of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, BTC traded at $106,693.69, gaining 1.36% over the past 24 hours to reach $107,252.90 by Wednesday morning, according to market data. The broader crypto index advanced 1%, driven by reduced concerns over an oil supply crunch, which lifted global equities like the S&P 500, which closed up 1.11% at 6,092.18 on Tuesday. Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted that initial optimism is waning due to doubts about the truce holding, citing a leaked U.S. intelligence report questioning the effectiveness of strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities. This uncertainty could cap gains, with BTC facing resistance near $108,000, where it hit a 24-hour high of $108,209.12 on Binance's BTCUSDT pair, before retreating slightly.

Fed Policy Uncertainty and Macro Data Drive Crypto Sentiment

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony added fuel to the rally, as his emphasis on patience with interest-rate cuts provided flexibility for risk assets. Speaking to House lawmakers on Tuesday, Powell highlighted elevated inflation and potential tariff pressures, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance that aligns with market expectations. Bitunix analysts explained in an emailed statement that Powell's remarks support short-term bullishness but warrant vigilance on upcoming inflation data. U.S. consumer confidence softened, pushing two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78% and increasing the probability of a July rate cut to about 20%, up from 13% a week ago, based on the CME FedWatch tool. Traders are now eyeing Powell's Senate testimony later today, where President Trump's calls for lower rates could amplify volatility. This macro backdrop strengthens crypto's appeal, with Ethereum (ETH) rising 1.83% to $2,467.12 in 24 hours, and altcoins like Bitcoin Cash (BCH) surging 3.73% to $500.00, indicating broad-based demand.

Derivatives and Options Signal Range-Bound Trading Ahead

Derivatives markets reveal a neutral-to-bullish stance, with traders positioning for tight price action around key levels. Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, observed that straddle sales and short puts near $105,000 and $100,000 suggest expectations of BTC consolidating between $100,000 and $105,000 before the June 27 options expiry. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September points to underlying bullish sentiment. On-chain metrics support this, with BTC's annualized three-month futures basis on offshore exchanges at 5%, below May's 7% peak, indicating stabilized sentiment after reclaiming $100,000. ETH's basis remains slightly higher, reflecting its relative strength. Perpetual funding rates on Binance show moderate positivity, with BTC at 0.0048% (5.26% annualized), while ETF flows add momentum—spot BTC ETFs saw $588.6 million in daily inflows, lifting holdings to 1.23 million BTC, per Farside Investors.

Upcoming Events and Trading Opportunities

Critical events this week could dictate market direction, starting with Powell's Senate testimony today at 10 a.m. ET, which may sway rate expectations and crypto volatility. Macro data releases include May durable goods orders and Q1 GDP figures on Thursday, with weak estimates potentially boosting crypto as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Token-specific catalysts abound, such as the Optimism (OP) unlock on June 30, releasing $17.13 million worth of tokens, which could pressure prices if selling ensues. Technical analysis highlights opportunities, like the XRP/BTC pair trading in a falling wedge on Binance, signaling a potential bullish reversal if it breaks resistance. For traders, strategies include monitoring BTC support at $105,000 and resistance at $108,000, with ETH offering entry points near $2,400. Cross-market risks loom, including the NATO summit discussions on defense spending, which could reignite geopolitical tensions and trigger flight-to-safety moves into gold or stablecoins.

Overall, the crypto market's relief rally is fragile, hinging on sustained ceasefire stability and Fed clarity. With BTC dominance at 65.52%, altcoins like Solana (SOL), down 0.51% at $145.25, may lag until broader sentiment firms. Traders should leverage real-time data, such as the drop in high-risk DeFi loans by $242 million over two weeks, indicating reduced liquidation risks, to capitalize on volatility around key events. Stay alert to Powell's testimony for immediate trading signals, as a dovish tone could propel BTC toward $110,000, while renewed tensions may test $100,000 support.