Bitcoin Price Nears $107K Amid Ceasefire Relief and Federal Reserve Focus

Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, with Bitcoin (BTC) climbing to $107,350, a 0.691% increase over 24 hours, as geopolitical tensions eased following a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel. This surge lifted Ethereum (ETH) by 0.572% to $2,430.65 and boosted altcoins like Solana (SOL), which jumped 2.718% to $146.99. The relief in Middle East conflicts reduced fears of an oil supply disruption, prompting traders to re-enter risk assets. According to Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, initial optimism drove the uptick, but doubts emerged after U.S. intelligence reports questioned the effectiveness of strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities, highlighting ongoing risks. Bitcoin's dominance rose to 65.52%, while the CoinDesk 20 index gained, reflecting broader market strength despite potential volatility.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Tuesday added momentum, as he emphasized patience on interest-rate cuts due to elevated inflation and tariff pressures. Bitunix analysts noted that this wait-and-see approach supports risk assets but increases short-term uncertainty. U.S. consumer-confidence data softened, pulling two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78% and raising the probability of a July rate cut to about 20% according to the CME FedWatch tool, up from 13% a week earlier. Powell's upcoming Senate testimony is critical, with traders monitoring for clues on monetary policy amid external pressures, including calls from former President Trump for deeper cuts. This backdrop underscores the interplay between macroeconomic indicators and crypto price movements, with BTC showing resilience above key support at $100,000.

Derivatives and ETF Flows Signal Cautious Optimism

Crypto derivatives activity indicates a neutral to mildly bullish stance ahead of the June 27 expiry. Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, reported that traders sold straddles and short puts near $105,000 and $100,000, suggesting expectations of tight price action between these levels. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September points to underlying bullish sentiment. The annualized three-month BTC futures basis on offshore exchanges edged up to 5%, though it remains below May highs of over 7%, while perpetual funding rates on Binance stood at 0.0048% (5.2626% annualized), indicating moderate positivity. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded daily net inflows of $588.6 million, with cumulative flows reaching $47.58 billion according to Farside Investors, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw $71.3 million in inflows, reinforcing institutional confidence in digital assets.

Technical analysis reveals trading opportunities, such as the XRP/BTC pair on Binance forming a falling wedge pattern with converging trendlines, which often precedes a bullish reversal if breached. Bitcoin's hashprice held at $54, with hashrate averaging 799 EH/s, signaling network stability. Upcoming events include Powell's Senate testimony, May durable goods orders data (estimated at 8.5% MoM), and Q1 GDP figures, which could drive volatility. For traders, key levels to watch include BTC support at $100,000-$105,000 and resistance near $108,000, with altcoins like ADA showing strength with a 1.621% gain to $0.558. The decline in high-risk DeFi loans by $242 million over two weeks also suggests reduced liquidation risks, supporting a healthier market outlook.

While geopolitical relief and Fed flexibility provide near-term tailwinds, persistent uncertainties could spur fluctuations. Investors should monitor inflation data, Middle East developments, and central bank signals for entry points. Strategies include targeting breakout plays in XRP/BTC or hedging with options during high-impact events. Overall, crypto markets remain sensitive to global risk sentiment, with BTC's push toward $108,000 offering potential upside if key resistances are breached, but caution is advised due to event-driven volatility.