Bitcoin: Atypical Cycle Bottom Fuels Short Squeeze

Bitcoin delivered its first real upside momentum in years through a short squeeze after an atypical cycle bottom marked by roughly 50% drawdown that skipped realized price, according to key takeaways from @dpuellARK shared by Ki Young Ju.

Capitulation appeared as supply in loss exceeded supply in profit with sellers exhausted, yet a drop to realized price stays possible while confirmation requires sustained higher highs and lows plus SOPR above 1 for months amid September pre-midterm weakness that favors range trading or a higher low; institutions front-running on-chain signals have flattened bottoms each cycle, volatility keeps compressing via ETFs, and quantum computing emerges as the dominant 5-10 year theme with 1.1-2.6M BTC at stake. BTC price action at $78644.31 sits inside Bollinger bands with upper resistance at $80515.56 and lower support at $78297.83 while the EMA50 at $78985.41 acts as immediate resistance above the EMA200 at $73863.53; the MACD death cross at -198.29 and neutral RSI at 43.15 together point to bearish trend continuation likely to test the 50-EMA before any sustained breakout, shaping near-term BTC price prediction around on-chain Bitcoin cycle analysis.