Bitcoin: August Rally Tests Midterm Election Pattern

Bitcoin has posted a 22% gain this August, positioning it to shatter the historical pattern of closing the month red during U.S. midterm election years.

The streak spans 2014, 2018 and 2022 with no green close. A finish above zero in 2026 would mark the first break since the cycle began.

Price sits at $77374.76 inside the Bollinger Bands with upper resistance at $79906.46. The 50-EMA at $71440.89 and 200-EMA at $66523.39 anchor the bullish structure while RSI at 70.83 signals overbought conditions and MACD shows a death cross. With price testing upper Bollinger resistance while RSI flashes overbought, a healthy retracement to the 50-EMA support at $71440.89 seems probable before further continuation.