Major financial institutions are increasingly signaling a structural shift in Bitcoin's (BTC) market dynamics, suggesting historical price cycles may no longer apply. According to a recent research report from investment bank Standard Chartered, the typical post-halving price correction is unlikely to materialize this time. Geoff Kendrick, the bank's head of digital assets research, boldly stated, "The bitcoin halving cycle is dead," pointing to unprecedented structural support from institutional players. The bank has reiterated an ambitious year-end price forecast of $200,000 for BTC, with an interim target of approximately $135,000 by the close of the third quarter. This bullish outlook is not based on speculation but on concrete data showing a massive influx of capital into the asset class, fundamentally altering its supply and demand dynamics for the foreseeable future.

Bitcoin's Path to $200,000: ETF Inflows and Corporate Demand Rewrite the Rules

The primary drivers behind this optimistic forecast are the relentless inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a resurgence in corporate treasury acquisitions of BTC. The Standard Chartered report highlights that these two sources alone accounted for the purchase of 245,000 BTC in the second quarter. This institutional demand has created a significant supply shock, which is expected to intensify. Further analysis from Kevin Tam reveals the scale of this imbalance: in the last year, ETFs acquired roughly 500,000 BTC and corporations bought another 250,000 BTC, while miners produced only 164,250 new bitcoins. This means demand from just these two segments was more than 4.5 times the new supply. Adding to this momentum are potential macro tailwinds, including a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve and positive developments around U.S. stablecoin legislation, which could further de-risk the asset for large-scale allocators and fuel the next leg up.

The Altcoin Rotation: Is the 'Most Hated Rally' About to Fuel an Altseason?

While Bitcoin has been capturing headlines, its rally has been described by some market observers, like Gregory Mall of Lionsoul Global, as the "most hated rally" due to its quiet, low-participation nature that caught many traders off-guard. This is reflected in Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC.D), which has climbed to over 54% from a low of 38% in late 2022. This surge has left many alternative cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, behind. As of early June, Ethereum (ETH) remained about 20% below its November 2021 all-time high, while Solana (SOL) was trading more than 30% below its peak. This divergence is a classic market signal. Historically, Bitcoin leads the charge, its dominance peaks, and then capital begins to rotate into higher-beta altcoins. The 2017 and 2021 bull cycles saw major altcoin rallies lag Bitcoin's new all-time highs by a period of two to six months, suggesting that a broader market rally could be on the horizon.

Early signs of this rotation may already be visible. Ethereum's recent outperformance, which includes an 81% rally from its April lows, indicates that positive sentiment is beginning to spill over. The DeFi sector is also showing renewed strength; according to data from DeFiLlama, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance protocols has surged past $117 billion, a 31% increase from its April slump. For traders, this signals a potential shift in market structure. As institutional investors who initially entered through BTC ETFs grow more comfortable, they are beginning to explore broader exposure through diversified indexes that include promising Layer-1 platforms like Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Near (NEAR). This rotation from the market's large-cap asset (BTC) into mid and small-cap assets (altcoins) is a hallmark of a maturing bull market cycle. However, as noted in a recent OECD report, the global economic landscape remains fragile, and crypto is still largely treated as a risk-on asset, vulnerable to broader market sell-offs.