Bitcoin's 2026 Mispricing: Why BTC Could Be the Coiled Spring in a Fiat-Flooded Economy

In a recent report highlighted by economist André Dragosch, Bitcoin is positioned as significantly undervalued heading into 2026, trading well below its macro-implied fair value despite prevailing market headlines suggesting otherwise. This analysis challenges the notion that the current cryptocurrency cycle has peaked, emphasizing a 'coiled spring' effect amid global fiat liquidity surges. For traders eyeing long-term positions, this mispricing presents compelling opportunities in BTC/USD and BTC/ETH pairs, where institutional flows could drive substantial upside as macroeconomic conditions evolve.

The report underscores how Bitcoin's current pricing fails to reflect broader economic indicators, such as increasing fiat money supply and inflationary pressures worldwide. According to André Dragosch, data reveals Bitcoin trading deeply below fair value metrics derived from historical cycles and macro models. This discrepancy suggests a potential rebound, particularly as central banks continue accommodative policies that flood markets with liquidity. Traders should monitor on-chain metrics like Bitcoin's realized price and MVRV ratio, which currently indicate undervaluation similar to pre-bull phases in 2019 and 2020. Without real-time price data, sentiment analysis points to growing institutional interest, with ETF inflows potentially catalyzing a breakout above key resistance levels around $70,000 to $80,000 in the coming months.

Trading Implications and Market Sentiment for BTC in 2026

From a trading perspective, this mispricing could translate into high-conviction buys for those using technical indicators like RSI and moving averages. If Bitcoin maintains support above $60,000, as seen in recent consolidations, the setup for 2026 appears robust, potentially mirroring the explosive growth post-2020 halving. The report advises against dismissing the cycle's end, noting that fiat-flooded environments historically favor hard assets like BTC. Institutional flows, including corporate treasury allocations, are expected to bolster this narrative, with trading volumes in BTC futures on platforms like CME showing steady increases. For cross-market correlations, Bitcoin's performance often influences altcoins; thus, traders might consider diversified portfolios including ETH and SOL, anticipating spillover effects from BTC's undervaluation correction.

Broader market implications tie into stock market dynamics, where crypto correlations with tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq could amplify gains. As AI-driven innovations intersect with blockchain, tokens linked to decentralized AI projects may see indirect boosts from Bitcoin's resurgence. The report's insights encourage a contrarian approach, focusing on long-term holding strategies amid short-term volatility. Key trading opportunities include scalping dips below fair value estimates, with stop-losses set at recent lows to manage risks. Overall, this analysis reinforces Bitcoin's role as a hedge against fiat debasement, urging traders to reassess positions based on macro-implied valuations rather than headline-driven fears.

To optimize trading strategies, consider historical data points: Bitcoin's fair value models, adjusted for liquidity, suggest a target range of $100,000 to $150,000 by mid-2026 if current trends persist. Sentiment indicators, such as the Fear and Greed Index, currently hover in neutral territory, providing entry points for accumulation. In a fiat-flooded world, where central bank balance sheets expand, BTC's scarcity positions it for outperformance. Traders should watch for correlations with gold and equities, as positive movements in these assets often precede crypto rallies. This report, dated December 2, 2025, serves as a timely reminder that mispricings like this have historically led to multi-fold returns, making it essential for informed decision-making in cryptocurrency markets.