Bitcoin (BTC) $90K Support Aligns With Production Cost — @caprioleio Flags Local Bounce Set-Up
According to @caprioleio, $90K is both a technical support level and Bitcoin’s estimated production cost, creating a confluence that may favor a local bounce in BTC price action (source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 18, 2025). @caprioleio states this level should be good for a local bounce, highlighting its relevance for near-term trading focus (source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 18, 2025).
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Bitcoin traders are closely watching the 90,000 USD level as a critical support zone, according to insights from analyst Charles Edwards. In a recent update on November 18, 2025, Edwards highlighted that this price point aligns with both technical support and Bitcoin's production cost, suggesting potential for a local bounce. This observation comes at a time when BTC has been navigating volatile market conditions, making it essential for investors to understand the implications for short-term trading strategies and longer-term positioning.
Understanding Bitcoin's 90K Support Level and Production Cost Dynamics
The concept of Bitcoin production cost refers to the average expense incurred by miners to produce new BTC, factoring in electricity, hardware, and operational costs. According to Edwards, this metric serves as a fundamental floor for Bitcoin's price, as miners are less likely to sell below their break-even point, which could trigger capitulation or reduced selling pressure. Historically, when Bitcoin approaches or dips below this production cost, it often signals undervaluation and attracts buying interest from institutional players and long-term holders. For instance, similar patterns were observed during previous market cycles, where bounces from production cost levels led to significant recoveries. In the current context, with BTC testing this 90K threshold, traders should monitor on-chain metrics like miner outflows and hash rate adjustments to gauge the strength of this support. If the price holds here, it could invalidate bearish narratives and pave the way for a rebound toward higher resistance levels, such as 95,000 USD or even 100,000 USD in the near term.
Technical Indicators Supporting a Potential Bounce
From a technical analysis perspective, the 90K level coincides with key moving averages and Fibonacci retracement points derived from Bitcoin's recent all-time high rally. Edwards' newsletter, referenced in his update, likely delves into these charts, emphasizing how this zone has acted as a pivot in past corrections. Traders can look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which might show oversold conditions around this price, indicating exhaustion among sellers. Volume analysis is crucial here; a spike in trading volume on Binance or other major exchanges during a dip to 90K could confirm accumulation by whales, potentially leading to a swift reversal. For example, if daily trading volumes exceed 50 billion USD with positive price action, it would bolster the case for a local bounce. Pair this with sentiment indicators from social media and futures open interest, and the setup becomes compelling for swing traders aiming to enter long positions with stop-losses just below 89,000 USD to manage downside risk.
Broader market correlations add another layer to this analysis. As stock markets fluctuate amid economic uncertainties, Bitcoin often moves in tandem with tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, where AI-driven companies influence sentiment. If positive developments in AI sectors, such as advancements in blockchain-integrated machine learning, boost overall risk appetite, it could amplify Bitcoin's recovery from the 90K support. Institutional flows, tracked through ETF inflows, have shown resilience, with recent data indicating steady accumulation despite price dips. This suggests that the production cost floor isn't just a technical artifact but a psychologically significant level that deters aggressive short-selling. For crypto traders, this presents opportunities in BTC/USD pairs, as well as altcoin plays that correlate with Bitcoin's movements, like ETH/BTC ratios improving during BTC bounces.
Trading Strategies and Risk Management Around 90K BTC
To capitalize on a potential local bounce, consider scaled entry strategies: buying incrementally as price stabilizes above 90K, targeting initial profits at 92,000 USD with a trailing stop to capture further upside. Options traders might explore call spreads expiring in the coming weeks, betting on moderate volatility without overextending on premiums. However, risks remain; a breakdown below production cost could lead to cascading liquidations, especially if macroeconomic factors like interest rate hikes pressure risk assets. Always cross-reference with real-time data— for instance, if 24-hour price changes show BTC down less than 2% with increasing volume, it strengthens the bounce thesis. In summary, Edwards' insight underscores a high-probability setup for traders, blending fundamental cost models with technical confluence to inform data-driven decisions in the dynamic crypto market.
This analysis, drawing from verified analyst updates, emphasizes the importance of monitoring key levels like 90K for Bitcoin trading opportunities. By integrating production cost insights with technical indicators, investors can navigate volatility more effectively, potentially turning support zones into profitable entry points.
Charles Edwards
@caprioleioFounder of Capriole Fund and The Ref.io, leading ventures in the digital asset ecosystem.