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Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) React to Israel-Iran Escalation: Key Trading Levels and ETF Flows Amid Crypto Liquidations | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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6/23/2025 3:38:36 PM

Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) React to Israel-Iran Escalation: Key Trading Levels and ETF Flows Amid Crypto Liquidations

Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) React to Israel-Iran Escalation: Key Trading Levels and ETF Flows Amid Crypto Liquidations

According to CoinDesk and CoinGlass, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 2.9% and Solana (SOL) fell nearly 9.5% after Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile sites triggered a sell-off in risk assets, leading to $1.16 billion in crypto liquidations over 24 hours. The CoinDesk 20 Index declined 6.1%, while defensive options activity surged, with BTC and ETH put/call ratios climbing to 1.28 and 1.25 respectively. Despite heavy liquidations and a sharp reset in derivatives open interest, spot BTC ETFs attracted $86.3 million in daily net inflows, bringing total holdings to 1.21 million BTC. Meanwhile, optimism about a Solana ETF approval remains high, with Bloomberg analysts assigning a 90% chance by year-end. Traders should monitor the $102K-$104K BTC long liquidation zone and the upcoming token unlocks for Starknet (STRK), Sei (SEI), Arbitrum (ARB), ZKsync (ZK), and ApeCoin (APE), as volatility is expected to persist amid geopolitical uncertainty (CoinDesk, CoinGlass, Bloomberg).

Source

Analysis

The cryptocurrency market experienced significant turbulence following Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear and missile sites, as reported on June 13, 2025, which sent shockwaves through global risk assets. According to CoinDesk, the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a benchmark for the broader crypto market, plummeted by 6.1% within 24 hours ending at 4 p.m. ET on June 13, reflecting widespread panic among investors. Bitcoin (BTC), often viewed as a digital safe haven, was not immune to the sell-off, declining by 2.42% over the same 24-hour period to $101,577.26, with intraday lows reaching $98,600.00 as of data captured at 4 p.m. ET. Ethereum (ETH) saw an even steeper drop of 8.81% in the 24 hours prior to 4 p.m. ET, trading at $2,293.06 after hitting a low of $2,124.65 during the session. Other major altcoins like Solana (SOL) fell by 9.5% in the same timeframe, with SOL trading at $135.00 as of 4 p.m. ET, down from a 24-hour high of $137.00. This market rout coincided with traditional risk assets taking a hit, as Japan’s Nikkei index closed down 0.89% at 37,834.25 on June 13, while U.S. index futures like the E-mini S&P 500 dropped 1.16% to 5,979.50 by the same timestamp. Meanwhile, traditional safe havens like gold futures surged 1.25% to $3,445.00, highlighting a stark contrast in investor sentiment. The geopolitical escalation, combined with Iran’s retaliatory drone strikes and a 91% probability of further conflict as gauged by Polymarket traders on June 13, has intensified risk-off behavior. This event erased earlier crypto gains driven by ETF approval speculation, particularly for Solana, which had rallied on news of updated S-1 filings with the SEC as noted by Wintermute trader Jake Ostrovskis in a CoinDesk interview on June 13.

From a trading perspective, the current market setup offers both risks and opportunities for crypto investors navigating the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Bitcoin’s relative resilience compared to altcoins, with a 24-hour loss of 2.42% versus ETH’s 8.81% as of 4 p.m. ET on June 13, suggests a flight to perceived safety within the crypto space. However, the sharp decline in open interest (OI) across derivatives platforms, dropping from $55 billion on June 12 to $49.31 billion by June 13 according to Velo data, indicates a broad de-leveraging event that could amplify volatility. Binance alone shed $2.5 billion in OI overnight, signaling a rapid unwind of speculative positions as of the latest data on June 13. Trading volumes spiked during the sell-off, with BTCUSDT recording 12.488 BTC in 24-hour volume and ETHUSDT seeing 442.759 ETH traded by 4 p.m. ET, reflecting heightened activity amid panic selling. For traders, this presents potential entry points, particularly in SOL, which Wintermute’s analysis suggests is now underexposed following the ETF-driven rally earlier in the week. The upcoming token unlocks between June 15-17, including Starknet (STRK) at $15.04 million and Arbitrum (ARB) at $31.28 million as reported on June 13, could further pressure specific altcoin prices if selling intensifies. Conversely, the $939 million in month-to-date inflows into spot BTC ETFs as of June 13 data from Farside Investors indicates sustained institutional interest, which could stabilize BTC prices if geopolitical tensions ease. Cross-market dynamics also warrant attention, as the 6% surge in U.S. crude oil futures to $73 on June 13 correlates with increased downside protection demand in crypto options, per Deribit data showing BTC put/call ratios climbing to 1.28 by the same date.

Technical indicators and on-chain metrics provide deeper insights into potential market movements following this geopolitical shock. Bitcoin’s price action on June 13 tested its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $103,150, as noted by CoinDesk, before recovering slightly to $101,577.26 by 4 p.m. ET. A failure to hold above this level could trigger further downside, with liquidation heatmaps from Coinglass indicating $84 million in long-side OI at risk between $102,000 and $104,000 as of June 13. Ethereum, trading at $2,293.06 at 4 p.m. ET, faces resistance at the 200-day EMA near $2,480, with a daily close above this level needed to signal strength amid current bearish momentum. Trading volumes for key pairs like SOLUSDT (2,967.821 SOL) and XRPUSDT (390,952.8 XRP) over the 24 hours ending at 4 p.m. ET reflect significant selling pressure, while funding rates remain broadly negative, with ETH at -7.99% and BTC at -1.06% on Deribit as of June 13, indicating bearish sentiment among leveraged traders. On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s dominance rising to 64.77% (up 0.70%) by June 13, suggesting capital rotation into BTC from altcoins during this risk-off period. The ETH/BTC ratio also dropped 3.52% to 0.02412 over the same 24-hour period, underscoring Ethereum’s underperformance relative to Bitcoin.

The correlation between stock market movements and crypto assets is evident in this crisis, as the 1.2% drop in U.S. index futures (E-mini Nasdaq-100 down 1.42% to 21,621.50 by 4 p.m. ET on June 13) mirrors the CD20’s 6.04% decline over the same timeframe. Crypto-related equities like Coinbase Global (COIN) fell 3.84% to $241.05 on June 13, with pre-market trading showing a further 2.1% drop to $236 by early June 14, reflecting broader risk aversion. Institutional money flows, however, show resilience in crypto, with spot ETH ETFs recording $112.3 million in daily net inflows and cumulative flows of $3.87 billion as of June 13 per Farside Investors. This suggests that while short-term sentiment is bearish, long-term confidence in crypto as an asset class persists among institutional players, potentially offering a buffer against stock market-driven sell-offs. Traders should monitor upcoming macro events like the G7 Summit (June 15-17) for signals of de-escalation, which could spur a recovery in risk appetite across both stock and crypto markets.

FAQ:
How did the Israel-Iran conflict impact Bitcoin prices on June 13, 2025?
Bitcoin prices dropped by 2.42% over the 24 hours ending at 4 p.m. ET on June 13, 2025, trading at $101,577.26 after hitting a low of $98,600.00 during the session, as reported in real-time market data. This decline was driven by heightened geopolitical tensions following Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which triggered a broad risk-off sentiment across global markets.

What trading opportunities exist in the crypto market following this event?
Despite the downturn, opportunities may arise in underexposed assets like Solana (SOL), which dropped 9.5% to $135.00 by 4 p.m. ET on June 13 but could see renewed interest due to ETF approval speculation, as highlighted by Wintermute via CoinDesk. Additionally, sustained institutional inflows into BTC ETFs ($939 million month-to-date as of June 13 per Farside Investors) suggest potential stability for Bitcoin, offering a safer entry point for risk-averse traders during this volatility.

Farside Investors

@FarsideUK

Farside Investors is a London based investment management company. Farside has one product, the Farside Equity Fund, an actively managed & long only fund.

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