Bitcoin's market dynamics are currently flashing bearish signals, particularly as the cryptocurrency remains below the critical $93,500 threshold, according to Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments. In his latest update, Edwards highlights ongoing selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) and institutions, even as Bitcoin enters what he describes as a value zone. This analysis comes amid a broader 2026 market outlook that touches on global uncertainties, including a deposed dictator, escalating talks of war, and attacks on freedom of speech. With gold reaching all-time highs, questions arise about whether Bitcoin is entrenched in a bear market or poised for a rebound. Traders should closely monitor these developments, as they could influence cryptocurrency trading strategies in the coming months.

Analyzing Bitcoin's Bearish Stance and Selling Pressures

In the update shared on January 12, 2026, Edwards emphasizes that Bitcoin's bearish outlook persists as long as it trades under $93,500. This price level acts as a key resistance point, where failure to break above could lead to further downside momentum. Continued LTH selling is a significant factor, as these holders, who typically accumulate during dips, are offloading positions, potentially signaling reduced confidence in short-term recovery. Institutional selling adds to the pressure, with large entities possibly reallocating funds amid macroeconomic tensions. Despite this, Bitcoin has entered a value zone, suggesting it may be undervalued based on historical metrics like the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio or on-chain data. Traders looking for entry points might consider this zone for long-term positions, but caution is advised without a clear bullish catalyst. For instance, monitoring trading volumes across major pairs like BTC/USD and BTC/USDT could reveal accumulation patterns if volumes spike on dips.

Impact of Global Events on Crypto Markets

The 2026 outlook also weaves in external factors that could sway Bitcoin's trajectory. Events such as the deposition of a dictator and rising war rhetoric contribute to global instability, often driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold, which has hit all-time highs. This flight to safety might temporarily sideline Bitcoin, perceived as a riskier asset, exacerbating the bearish sentiment. Additionally, concerns over freedom of speech attacks could fuel narratives around decentralized technologies, potentially benefiting Bitcoin in the long run as a censorship-resistant store of value. From a trading perspective, these geopolitical risks introduce volatility, creating opportunities for swing trades. For example, if Bitcoin tests support levels around $80,000—based on previous cycles—it could present buying opportunities, especially if correlated with stock market movements in tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, where AI and crypto intersections are prominent.

Edwards notes the presence of numerous liquidity catalysts that could prove pivotal for Bitcoin. These might include upcoming halvings, regulatory clarity, or institutional inflows via ETFs, though specifics remain tied to market evolution. In terms of trading indicators, tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could signal oversold conditions in this value zone, prompting contrarian buys. On-chain metrics, such as exchange inflows from LTH wallets, provide concrete data points; for instance, if selling volumes taper off, it might indicate exhaustion. Traders should watch for correlations with Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins, as a Bitcoin rebound often lifts the broader market. Institutional flows, tracked through sources like on-chain analytics, show persistent outflows, but a reversal could target resistance at $100,000. Overall, this setup demands patience, with risk management strategies like stop-losses below recent lows to navigate potential drawdowns.

Trading Opportunities and Risk Management in 2026

Looking ahead, the 2026 market outlook positions Bitcoin at a crossroads, where it must 'prove itself' amid these pressures. For active traders, scalping opportunities exist in high-liquidity pairs, capitalizing on intraday fluctuations driven by news events. Long-term investors might accumulate in the value zone, eyeing historical patterns where Bitcoin rebounds from similar setups, potentially aiming for new highs if macroeconomic conditions stabilize. Cross-market analysis reveals ties to stock markets; for example, if AI-driven stocks surge, it could boost sentiment in AI-related tokens and, by extension, Bitcoin as a foundational asset. However, risks from continued selling could push prices lower, so diversifying into stablecoins or hedging with options is prudent. In summary, while bearish below $93,500, the confluence of value entry and liquidity catalysts offers a compelling case for monitored optimism, with trading decisions grounded in real-time data and global context.