Bitcoin BTC bottom signal: RSI vs gold at record low and Ethereum ETH vs silver weakness — 5 macro tailwinds cited by @CryptoMichNL
According to @CryptoMichNL, crypto markets are showing a bottoming setup rather than a peak, with intermarket relative strength signals supporting accumulation; he states the business cycle is at a 15-year low, the Bitcoin (BTC) versus gold RSI is at its lowest on record, the Ethereum (ETH) versus silver RSI is at its lowest on weekly and two-weekly timeframes, and broad layoffs alongside an AI pivot signal capitulation and low interest in the asset class (source: @CryptoMichNL). According to @CryptoMichNL, key tailwinds include a dovish, pro-Bitcoin Federal Reserve chair, an expected Clarity Act, the removal of government shutdown risks, accelerating quantitative easing, and a historical pattern of gold peaking before BTC rallies; he adds that markets peaked in December 2024 and are bottoming in Q1 2026, implying the next bull market is near, crediting @TechDev_52 for the chart (source: @CryptoMichNL).
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Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing compelling bottom signals in the current market cycle, according to insights from cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe. As markets navigate economic uncertainties, these indicators suggest a potential accumulation phase for savvy traders, with Bitcoin's valuation against gold hitting historic lows on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This development comes amid a broader business cycle that's at its lowest point in 15 years, creating opportunities for contrarian trading strategies in the crypto space.
Understanding Bitcoin's Bottom Signal Against Gold
In a detailed analysis shared on February 4, 2026, van de Poppe highlights how Bitcoin's valuation versus gold has reached its lowest point ever on the RSI metric. This technical indicator, which measures the speed and change of price movements, often signals oversold conditions when it dips to extreme lows. For traders, this could imply that Bitcoin is undervalued relative to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, potentially setting the stage for a reversal. Historically, such RSI extremes have preceded significant rallies in Bitcoin, as seen in previous cycles where accumulation during low-interest periods led to substantial gains. With no real-time price data available at this moment, traders should monitor key support levels around $40,000 to $50,000 for Bitcoin, based on recent historical patterns, while watching for volume spikes that could confirm a bottom formation.
Ethereum's Valuation Dynamics Versus Silver
Similarly, Ethereum's valuation against silver is at its lowest on both weekly and two-weekly RSI timeframes, marking an unprecedented opportunity according to the analysis. This comparison underscores Ethereum's potential as a digital asset akin to 'digital silver,' especially with its role in decentralized finance and smart contracts. The low RSI readings suggest extreme undervaluation, which could attract institutional inflows once market sentiment shifts. Traders might consider entry points near Ethereum's support zones, such as $2,000 to $2,500, paying close attention to on-chain metrics like transaction volumes and active addresses, which have historically surged during recovery phases. Van de Poppe credits chart insights to TechDev_52, emphasizing how these metrics align with broader market bottoms.
The broader economic context amplifies these signals, with widespread layoffs as companies pivot to artificial intelligence pursuits, chasing what van de Poppe describes as another bubble. This environment of disinterest in cryptocurrencies mirrors past cycles where apathy preceded bull runs. For trading-focused investors, this is a cue to accumulate positions contrarily, especially with tailwinds on the horizon. Key positives include a dovish Federal Reserve chairman supportive of Bitcoin, the impending signing of the Clarity Act for regulatory clarity, avoidance of government shutdowns, ramped-up quantitative easing, and gold's potential peak leading to Bitcoin's upward momentum, as historical correlations demonstrate.
Trading Strategies Amid Market Bottom Signals
From a trading perspective, these indicators point to a market bottoming in Q1 2026, following a peak in December 2024, as per van de Poppe's framework. Traders should focus on dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin and Ethereum during this phase, targeting long-term holds rather than short-term flips. Without current market data, it's essential to reference historical volumes; for instance, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume often exceeds $20 billion during reversal confirmations, while Ethereum sees spikes above $10 billion. Market indicators like the Fear and Greed Index, currently in fear territory, further support accumulation. Correlations with stock markets, particularly AI-driven tech stocks, could influence crypto sentiment—traders might watch for cross-market flows where declines in Nasdaq composites coincide with crypto dips, offering hedged entry points.
Broader Implications for Crypto Market Sentiment
Institutional flows remain a critical watchpoint, with potential QE ramps encouraging risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. On-chain metrics, such as Bitcoin's hash rate stability and Ethereum's staking rewards, provide additional confirmation of network health amid low valuations. For those exploring trading pairs, BTC/USD and ETH/USD on major exchanges could see increased volatility, with resistance levels at $60,000 for Bitcoin and $3,000 for Ethereum potentially tested in a recovery scenario. Van de Poppe's experience through multiple cycles reinforces that buying when interest is minimal often yields the best returns, urging traders to position ahead of the anticipated bull market start.
Overall, this analysis shifts the narrative from peak euphoria to bottom opportunity, encouraging a reevaluation of trading frameworks. By integrating these RSI lows with upcoming policy tailwinds, traders can navigate the crypto landscape with informed strategies, focusing on risk management and long-term growth potential in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast