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Bitcoin (BTC) Cycle Theory Is Dead: Why Old Whales Are Selling to New Institutional Long-Term Holders | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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7/24/2025 10:36:39 PM

Bitcoin (BTC) Cycle Theory Is Dead: Why Old Whales Are Selling to New Institutional Long-Term Holders

Bitcoin (BTC) Cycle Theory Is Dead: Why Old Whales Are Selling to New Institutional Long-Term Holders

According to @ki_young_ju, the traditional Bitcoin (BTC) cycle theory, which advised buying when whales accumulate and selling when retail investors enter the market, is now considered obsolete. The author states that the previous pattern of whales selling to retail investors at market tops no longer holds true. In the current market dynamic, a significant shift is occurring where 'old whales' are selling their holdings to 'new long-term whales.' This change is reportedly driven by a level of institutional adoption that is larger than previously anticipated, suggesting a fundamental change in Bitcoin's market structure and holder composition, which has direct implications for trading strategies based on historical cycles.

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Analysis

Bitcoin traders are facing a paradigm shift as traditional cycle theories lose their relevance in today's market landscape. According to Ki Young Ju, a prominent crypto analyst, the classic Bitcoin cycle theory is effectively dead. This theory, which guided many investors to buy during whale accumulation phases and sell when retail investors flood in, no longer applies. In previous cycles, large holders or 'whales' would offload their positions to eager retail buyers at peak prices. However, the current environment shows old whales transferring assets to new long-term holders, driven largely by massive institutional adoption that overshadows traditional patterns.

The Death of Bitcoin Cycle Theory and Its Trading Implications

This revelation from Ki Young Ju, shared on July 24, 2025, highlights a fundamental change in Bitcoin's market structure. Traders who relied on on-chain metrics like whale accumulation signals must now adapt their strategies. For instance, in the 2021 bull run, Bitcoin surged to around $69,000 in November, with whales distributing holdings as retail FOMO drove prices higher. Volume data from that period showed retail trading volumes spiking on exchanges, correlating with whale sell-offs. Fast-forward to today, and we're seeing a different story: institutional players, including spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, are absorbing supply from veteran holders. This shift suggests that Bitcoin's price movements may become more stable but less predictable for short-term traders, emphasizing the need for long-term holding strategies over cycle-based timing.

Navigating Institutional Flows in BTC Trading

From a trading perspective, institutional adoption is proving to be a game-changer for Bitcoin. Recent data indicates that institutions have accumulated over 1 million BTC through various channels since early 2024, according to on-chain analytics. This influx not only supports price floors but also reduces the volatility typically associated with retail-driven cycles. Traders should monitor key indicators such as the Bitcoin exchange reserves, which have been declining steadily, signaling reduced selling pressure from old whales. For example, as of mid-2025, exchange balances hit multi-year lows, coinciding with ETF inflows exceeding $50 billion. This creates trading opportunities in BTC/USD pairs, where support levels around $60,000 have held firm amid broader market corrections. Savvy traders might look to enter long positions during dips, anticipating institutional buying to provide rebounds, rather than waiting for retail signals that may never materialize.

Moreover, this evolution affects cross-market correlations, particularly with stocks. As Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a tech asset, its movements align more closely with Nasdaq indices, influenced by institutional portfolios. During the July 2025 market dip, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume surpassed $100 billion, reflecting heightened institutional activity rather than retail panic. Traders can capitalize on this by analyzing arbitrage opportunities between BTC and correlated assets like Ethereum or even AI-related tokens, where sentiment spills over. However, risks remain: if institutional flows slow, Bitcoin could face resistance at $70,000, a level tested multiple times in 2025 without a decisive breakout. To mitigate this, incorporating tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) – currently hovering around 55, indicating neutral momentum – can help identify overbought or oversold conditions for precise entries and exits.

Adapting Strategies for the New Bitcoin Era

In light of these changes, Bitcoin trading strategies must evolve beyond outdated cycle models. Focus on on-chain metrics such as mean coin age, which has been increasing, pointing to a maturing holder base dominated by institutions. This contrasts with past cycles where short-term speculation drove rapid price swings. For retail traders, this means shifting toward dollar-cost averaging or options trading to hedge against uncertainty. Institutional dominance also boosts overall market sentiment, potentially leading to sustained bull runs if adoption continues. As Ki Young Ju notes, the scale of institutional involvement is bigger than anticipated, suggesting that Bitcoin's next major move could be driven by macroeconomic factors like interest rate cuts rather than retail hype. Ultimately, traders who adapt by tracking whale-to-institution transfers and integrating real-time volume data will be better positioned to thrive in this new paradigm, turning potential risks into profitable opportunities.

Ki Young Ju

@ki_young_ju

Founder & CEO of CryptoQuant.com

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