Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance Nears Peak, Signaling Potential Altcoin Rally as Institutional Inflows Surge

According to Gregory Mall, Bitcoin's (BTC) recent rally to a new all-time high was driven by three key factors: central bank optimism with expected rate cuts, significant institutional inflows into spot BTC ETFs exceeding $16 billion year-to-date, and easing global political risks. Mall's analysis highlights that BTC dominance has climbed above 54%, a level that historically precedes major altcoin outperformance. Historical cycles from 2017 and 2021 show altcoin rallies typically lag BTC's all-time highs by two to six months. Ethereum's (ETH) recent 81% rally from its April lows is cited as a potential early indicator of this capital rotation. Further signs of a potential 'altseason' include institutional investors exploring broader crypto exposure beyond Bitcoin, innovation in Layer 1 ecosystems like Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX), and a resurgence in DeFi, with Total Value Locked (TVL) surpassing $117 billion, according to DeFiLlama. However, Mall also notes a caution from a recent OECD report on the fragile global economy, which could pose risks to speculative assets like crypto.
SourceAnalysis
Bitcoin's Rally Surges Past $108,000 as Advisor Hesitancy Meets Market Reality
The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a landmark moment as Bitcoin (BTC) has not only sustained its momentum but has surged to remarkable new heights, with the BTC/USDT pair trading at approximately $108,222. This powerful move follows a historic breakout on May 22, when BTC first surpassed its previous all-time highs. Despite this clear display of strength, a significant portion of the traditional financial advisory world remains on the sidelines. According to Gerry O'Shea, head of global market insights at crypto asset manager Hashdex, the "overwhelming majority" of financial advisors are not yet recommending crypto allocations to their clients. This hesitation stems from a need for thorough due diligence, with advisors moving cautiously into the asset class. However, O'Shea notes a crucial shift in their inquiries, moving from basic questions about blockchain to sophisticated discussions on portfolio allocation and Bitcoin's role as a potential replacement for gold or as a unique equity-like asset.
Historically, advisors' primary concerns have been volatility, energy consumption, and perceived links to illicit activities. While volatility remains a factor, with BTC's characteristic 20% drawdowns, anxieties around energy use have diminished. O'Shea highlights a changing narrative, where Bitcoin's proof-of-work mining is increasingly seen as a catalyst for developing renewable energy infrastructure. Concerns about criminality are also being addressed with more data and education. This gradual erosion of skepticism is paving the way for wider acceptance. As O'Shea predicts, many advisors currently underestimate the maturity of the digital asset ecosystem and the long-term benefits of an allocation. He anticipates a significant shift in this perspective by the end of the year, driven by undeniable market performance and growing institutional frameworks.
The Quiet Surge: Unpacking Bitcoin's Low-Participation Breakout
The rally that has propelled Bitcoin to over $108,000 has been described by some analysts, including Gregory Mall, Chief Investment Officer at Lionsoul Global, as the "most hated rally." This is due to its occurrence amidst general market skepticism and on relatively thin trading volumes, catching many traders off guard. Mall identifies three key drivers behind this powerful ascent. Firstly, growing optimism around central bank policy, with markets pricing in potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the latter half of 2025, has revived risk appetite. Secondly, institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been relentless. Cumulative net inflows have surpassed $16 billion year-to-date, with May marking the largest monthly inflow. This institutional demand is a powerful force, consistently absorbing available supply. For instance, according to analysis by Kevin Tam, ETF purchases last year outstripped newly minted supply by a factor of three. Thirdly, an improving global trade outlook and easing political tensions have provided a stable macroeconomic backdrop for risk assets like BTC to thrive.
Is Altcoin Season on the Horizon? Analyzing the BTC Dominance Signal
While Bitcoin charts new territory, most alternative cryptocurrencies, or altcoins, have yet to follow suit. Ethereum (ETH), currently trading around $2,525, remains significantly below its 2021 peak, as does Solana (SOL) at approximately $148. This performance gap has pushed Bitcoin dominance—its share of the total crypto market capitalization—above 54%. Historically, a peak in BTC dominance often precedes a major rally in altcoins. During the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles, altcoin outperformance lagged Bitcoin's new all-time highs by two to six months. If this historical pattern holds, the rotation of capital from BTC into altcoins may be imminent. The recent strength in the ETH/BTC pair, which has shown signs of bottoming out, could be an early indicator of this shift. Furthermore, the resurgence in decentralized finance (DeFi), with the total value locked (TVL) across protocols surpassing $117 billion according to DeFiLlama, signals renewed on-chain activity that primarily benefits Layer 1 platforms like Ethereum and Solana.
For traders and advisors, this market dynamic presents a clear opportunity for strategic rotation. As institutional investors who initially gained exposure through BTC ETFs become more comfortable, they are beginning to look at broader, diversified crypto strategies. Equal-weight baskets or thematic funds focusing on Layer 1s, DeFi, and Web3 infrastructure are gaining traction. The recent performance of pairs like AVAX/BTC, which saw a 24-hour gain of over 6.7%, underscores the potential in high-beta altcoins. However, it is crucial to remain cautious. As the latest OECD report highlights, the global economic landscape is fragile. A broader market sell-off in risk assets would undoubtedly impact crypto. Therefore, while the signs point towards a potential altcoin season, allocation decisions must be guided by fundamental analysis of network activity and developer momentum, not just price action alone. The key takeaway is that Bitcoin's rally may be the signal that the next, broader phase of the crypto cycle is about to begin.
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.