Bitcoin (BTC) Eyes Bullish Golden Cross as SEI Surges 50%; Is an Altcoin Rally Next? Trading Analysis

According to @FarsideUK, while Bitcoin (BTC) has retreated from its recent high of over $108,000, bullish sentiment persists, supported by significant institutional adoption and favorable macro developments. Key drivers include a directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider crypto holdings for mortgages and spot BTC ETFs recording 12 consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $548 million, as cited by Farside Investors. Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted the total crypto market cap is approaching a volatility threshold at $3.31 trillion. In altcoin news, SEI token has surged 50% in a week, driven by its selection as a settlement layer for Wyoming's state-backed stablecoin and other positive catalysts. From a technical perspective, the Binance-listed BTC-BCH pair is approaching a "golden cross," a long-term bullish indicator. Furthermore, analysis from Gregory Mall of Lionsoul Global suggests that, based on historical cycles, an altcoin rally could follow Bitcoin's recent all-time highs, a pattern that has occurred two to six months later in previous bull markets.
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The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a powerful surge driven by intensifying institutional adoption, with Bitcoin (BTC) recently shattering previous resistance to trade above $108,000. This rally isn't just a speculative frenzy; it's underpinned by significant fundamental developments and strong capital inflows, suggesting a new phase of market maturity. The latest catalyst comes from an unexpected corner: the U.S. housing market. Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, announced an order for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to begin factoring cryptocurrency holdings into their mortgage underwriting criteria. This move, aimed at entrenching digital assets into the fabric of the world's largest economy, provides a substantial long-term tailwind for BTC and the broader crypto ecosystem. As of Wednesday, BTC briefly touched a high of $108,250 before a slight pullback. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $107,446, reflecting a minor 0.37% dip but still holding strong near its recent peak.
Institutional Inflows and Market Indicators Signal Strength
The institutional appetite for Bitcoin is undeniable. Spot BTC ETFs have recorded 12 consecutive days of net positive flows, with a remarkable $548 million flowing in on the most recent day of trading, according to data from Farside Investors. This brings the cumulative net inflows to over $48 billion. Corporate treasuries are also adding to the buying pressure. Japanese firm Metaplanet recently purchased an additional 1,234 BTC, solidifying its position as a major corporate holder. This sustained demand is reflected in key market indicators. According to FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich, the total crypto market capitalization has swelled to $3.31 trillion, nearing a critical volatility threshold between $3.40 and $3.55 trillion, which has historically activated sellers. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has climbed to 74, just shy of the "extreme greed" zone, indicating strong bullish sentiment but also cautioning traders about potential overheating.
Derivatives and On-Chain Data Paint a Complex Picture
While the spot market is clearly bullish, the derivatives landscape offers a more nuanced view. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has been rising alongside the price, which can sometimes signal that traders are opening hedge positions against a potential drop. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), a hub for institutional traders, BTC futures open interest surged to a four-week high of 159,850 BTC. However, the annualized basis—the premium of futures contracts over the spot price—remains flat below 10%, which slightly tempers the outright bullish narrative. Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals burgeoning activity in decentralized finance (DeFi). The amount of USDtb, a yield-bearing stablecoin from Ethena backed by BlackRock's BUIDL fund, borrowed on the Aave protocol has skyrocketed to a record high. This signals robust demand for sophisticated, yield-generating DeFi products. In a specific technical signal, the Binance-listed BTC/BCH pair is showing a strong bullish setup, as its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is poised to cross above the 200-day SMA, forming a "golden cross" that often precedes long-term upward price action.
Altcoin Season on the Horizon? SEI and ETH Show Promise
As Bitcoin consolidates its gains, traders are increasingly looking toward altcoins for the next leg of the rally. Historically, a period of BTC dominance is often followed by a rotation of capital into smaller-cap assets, an event known as "altseason." Gregory Mall, CIO of Lionsoul Global, notes that in past cycles, altcoin rallies have lagged Bitcoin's all-time highs by two to six months. Ethereum (ETH), which recently rallied 81% from its April lows and is currently trading around $2,473, is often seen as the first beneficiary of this rotation. One altcoin already experiencing a breakout is SEI, which has surged 50% in the past week. This "clean, multi-factor rally," as described by analyst Shaurya Malwa, is driven by strong fundamentals. Wyoming's selection of SEI as a settlement layer for its state-backed stablecoin pilot has provided rare institutional validation. This, combined with an upcoming airdrop, increased validator rewards, and a lack of significant token unlocks, has created a perfect storm for price appreciation. Centralized exchange inflows for SEI topped $3 million, while its Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols crossed $540 million, indicating genuine, spot-led demand and rising ecosystem traction. This strong performance in select altcoins could be a precursor to a broader market rotation if Bitcoin's momentum holds steady.
Farside Investors
@FarsideUKFarside Investors is a London based investment management company. Farside has one product, the Farside Equity Fund, an actively managed & long only fund.