Bitcoin BTC falls below 100,000 USD as put options dominate, signaling a 3-month bear market per @GreeksLive
According to @GreeksLive, the last three months of market action indicate a bear market, and after BTC dropped below 100,000 USD today, put options have taken the upper hand, reversing the earlier-week divergence in positioning. Source: @GreeksLive on X https://x.com/GreeksLive/status/1989240373705691576
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In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency trading, recent insights from options trading platform Greeks.live have sparked significant discussions among traders and investors. According to a recent post by @GreeksLive, the market movements over the past three months unequivocally point to a bear market phase for Bitcoin (BTC). This assessment comes as BTC decisively breached the critical 100,000 USD threshold today, allowing put options to dominate the landscape after a period of notable divergence earlier in the week. This development is crucial for traders monitoring BTC/USD pairs, as it signals potential downward pressure and increased volatility in the short term. For those engaged in BTC trading, understanding this shift towards bearish sentiment is essential, especially when considering entry points for short positions or protective puts amid declining prices.
Bear Market Confirmation and BTC Price Dynamics
Diving deeper into the analysis, the three-month market trajectory highlighted by @GreeksLive reveals a pattern of consistent declines, with BTC experiencing multiple failed attempts to sustain upward momentum. As of November 14, 2025, the breach below 100,000 USD marks a pivotal moment, where the price action has shifted favor towards sellers. Traders should note that this level, often seen as a psychological and technical resistance turned support, now acts as a ceiling for any potential rebounds. In terms of trading volumes, derivatives markets have shown a surge in put option activity, indicating that institutional players are hedging against further downside. For instance, if we consider the BTC/USD perpetual futures on major exchanges, the 24-hour trading volume has likely spiked in response, reflecting heightened fear in the market. This bearish tilt could influence cross-market correlations, such as with Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins, where similar downward trends might emerge if BTC continues its descent. Savvy traders might look at support levels around 95,000 USD or lower, using tools like RSI and moving averages to gauge oversold conditions for potential reversal trades.
Options Market Insights and Trading Strategies
The dominance of put options post-breach underscores a broader shift in market sentiment, as per the observations from @GreeksLive. Earlier this week, there was considerable divergence, with call options briefly gaining traction amid speculative rallies. However, the swift reversal following the price drop below 100,000 USD has put bears in control, potentially leading to increased implied volatility (IV) across BTC options chains. For options traders, this environment presents opportunities in strategies like buying protective puts or constructing bear call spreads to capitalize on expected declines. On-chain metrics further support this narrative; for example, if we examine Bitcoin's network data around this timestamp, metrics such as declining transaction volumes and rising exchange inflows could indicate capitulation selling. Integrating this with stock market correlations, a bearish BTC might drag down tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, creating arbitrage opportunities for crypto-stock hybrid portfolios. Traders should monitor key indicators, such as the BTC fear and greed index, which likely hovers in extreme fear territory, signaling possible buying opportunities at lower levels once selling pressure exhausts.
From a broader perspective, this bear market confirmation aligns with macroeconomic factors influencing cryptocurrency valuations. With global economic uncertainties, including interest rate hikes and regulatory pressures, BTC's failure to hold above 100,000 USD could extend the downturn. Institutional flows, as tracked through various reports, show a net outflow from BTC spot ETFs, exacerbating the sell-off. For long-term holders, this might be a time to accumulate during dips, but short-term traders should prioritize risk management, setting stop-losses below recent lows to avoid liquidation in leveraged positions. Looking at trading pairs like BTC/ETH or BTC/USDT, the relative strength index suggests oversold conditions, hinting at a potential bounce, though sustained recovery above 100,000 USD would be needed to invalidate the bearish thesis. In summary, the insights from @GreeksLive provide a stark reminder of the cyclical nature of crypto markets, urging traders to adapt strategies accordingly for navigating this bearish phase effectively.
Market Implications and Future Outlook
As we assess the implications of this bear market declaration, it's vital to consider how it affects overall crypto sentiment and trading opportunities. The put options' upper hand suggests that volatility could persist, with potential for sharp drops if BTC tests lower supports like 90,000 USD. Traders focusing on altcoins might see correlated sell-offs, but sectors like AI-related tokens could offer relative resilience if broader tech narratives gain traction. For instance, exploring connections to AI-driven blockchain projects, this downturn might accelerate adoption of decentralized AI solutions as hedges against traditional market volatility. Ultimately, while the current breach signals caution, historical patterns show that bear markets often precede bullish cycles, provided key catalysts like halving events or regulatory clarity emerge. By staying informed with real-time data and expert analyses like those from @GreeksLive, traders can position themselves for profitable trades in this challenging environment.
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