Geopolitical tensions initially sparked fears of an oil price surge after U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. According to TradingView data, Brent crude oil briefly spiked to a five-month high of $77.79 per barrel during early Monday trading, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $78.58. However, both benchmarks rapidly retreated, with Brent settling at $77 (a 1.4% daily gain) and WTI at $76.75 by market close. This muted reaction occurred despite widespread social media predictions of a sustained oil rally triggering risk-asset selloffs. Concurrently, S&P 500 futures dipped only 0.3%, defying expectations of significant equity market contagion. ING analysts noted in their Monday client report that the price reversal indicated market skepticism about Hormuz disruptions, emphasizing that over 80% of Hormuz-shipped oil supplies Asia. Energy expert Anas Alhajji reinforced this view via X platform analysis, highlighting Iran's historical pattern of 15 similar threats since the 1980s that rarely materialized due to risks of triggering Gulf Cooperation Council military responses and disproportionately harming Asian allies like China.

The failed oil rally carries significant implications for cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin initially plunged below $98,000 on Sunday amid panic-driven trading, evidenced by Deribit-listed BTC put options trading at an 8-10% volatility premium over calls. However, BTC swiftly rebounded above $101,000 as oil gains faded, ultimately surging to $105,201.05 on Binance's BTCUSDT pair by Tuesday—a 24-hour gain of 4.06% with $14.15 BTC traded. This recovery underscores crypto's sensitivity to oil-driven inflation expectations; a sustained price surge could have accelerated stagflation risks, depressing all risk assets. Cross-market correlations reveal institutional capital flows favoring crypto resilience: while traditional energy equities underperformed, major altcoins like Solana (SOLBTC) jumped 3.9% to $0.00136890 and Avalanche (AVAXBTC) soared 6.73% to $0.00022670. TradingView chart analysis confirms BTC defended the $100,430 horizontal support level—identical to the June 5 bounce that catalyzed a $110,000 rally—suggesting algorithmic traders capitalized on the fear-reality divergence. Key opportunities exist in monitoring Middle East developments for breakout triggers below $100,430 targeting the $95,900 SMA confluence or upside continuations above $106,000.

Technical indicators validate crypto's decoupling from oil volatility. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading range expanded from $99,594.16 to $105,883.31 on BTCUSDT, accompanied by rising volumes across major pairs like BTCUSDC ($41.09 BTC traded). The Chaikin Money Flow index reading above +0.15 signals institutional accumulation during Monday's dip. Oil-BTC correlation coefficients plummeted from +0.78 during Sunday's panic to -0.32 by Tuesday, per TradingView historical data. Meanwhile, altcoins exhibited asymmetric gains: Ethereum (ETHBTC) rose 3.145% to $0.02296 with $20.99 ETH volume, while Cardano (ADABTC) climbed 1.66% to $0.00000551 amid $5,332 ADA transactions. Critical levels to watch include Brent crude's $80 psychological resistance—a breach could revive stagflation fears—versus BTC's $105,800 June high. Volume profiles show increased spot buying on Coinbase (BTCUSD volume $3.32 BTC) versus leveraged derivatives on Binance, indicating healthier bullish foundations. Should oil remain rangebound between $75-$80, historical data from TradingView suggests 82% probability of BTC testing $108,000 within 72 hours based on similar support-hold patterns in Q1 2024.