Bitcoin (BTC) has shown remarkable resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions, holding key support levels while oil prices failed to sustain early gains despite fears of supply disruptions. Just 24 hours ago, market sentiment was gripped by concerns over a U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear sites and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which sparked predictions of soaring oil prices and cascading effects on stocks and cryptocurrencies. According to data from TradingView, Brent crude oil prices gapped higher by 3% early in the trading session on Monday, reaching a five-month high of $77.79 before retreating to $77, a mere 1.4% gain as of 10:00 UTC on the same day. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude peaked at $78.58 before falling to $76.75 by 10:00 UTC. Contrary to expectations of a risk-off environment, Bitcoin has rebounded above $101,000 as of 12:00 UTC on Monday, recovering from a low of $98,254.52 during the 24-hour period ending at 12:00 UTC, per Binance data for the BTCUSDT pair. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures traded only 0.3% lower at 09:00 UTC on Monday, signaling muted panic in traditional markets. Analysts at ING noted in a client report on Monday morning that the market appears unconvinced about Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could disproportionately impact Asian allies like China, thus reducing the likelihood of drastic oil price spikes. This unexpected stability in oil markets has provided a cushion for risk assets like Bitcoin, preventing a deeper sell-off amid fears of stagflation—a scenario where rising inflation and economic stagnation could hurt both stocks and crypto. The muted reaction in energy markets suggests that the crowd’s initial fears, often amplified on social media, may have been overblown, aligning with the contrarian perspective that the majority is often wrong in financial markets.

From a trading perspective, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above critical support offers actionable opportunities for crypto investors while also reflecting broader cross-market dynamics. BTC’s price on the BTCUSDT pair surged by 2.363%, or $2,346.06, over the 24 hours ending at 12:00 UTC on Monday, with a high of $102,500 and a trading volume of 12.519 BTC on Binance. This recovery from the Sunday low of $98,254.52 indicates strong buying interest at lower levels, particularly around the psychological $100,000 mark. The oil price retreat has alleviated pressure on risk assets, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin and altcoins. Notably, Ethereum (ETH) on the ETHBTC pair gained 2.079% to 0.02259 BTC in the same 24-hour period, with a volume of 4.973 BTC and a high of 0.02259 BTC, reflecting correlated strength in major crypto assets. Solana (SOL) on the SOLBTC pair also outperformed with a 3.196% rise to 0.0013368 BTC, backed by a volume of 91.34 BTC as of 12:00 UTC Monday. In the stock market, the minimal decline in S&P 500 futures suggests institutional investors are not yet shifting to a full risk-off mode as of 09:00 UTC Monday, which could encourage further capital inflows into crypto markets. For traders, this presents a potential entry point for swing trades on BTCUSDT, targeting resistance near $103,500—seen as the 24-hour high on Monday at 12:00 UTC on Binance—while setting stop-losses below $98,000 to mitigate downside risks. The correlation between stable oil prices and risk appetite also implies that crypto-related stocks, such as Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR), could see positive momentum if equity markets remain steady.

Diving into technical indicators and market correlations, Bitcoin’s chart reveals that bears failed to sustain a break below the key horizontal support of $100,430 on Sunday at 18:00 UTC, with buyers stepping in to push prices toward $101,847.57 by 12:00 UTC Monday on the BTCUSD pair, accompanied by a 24-hour volume of 2.216 BTC on Binance. The 24-hour high of $103,500.01 on BTCUSD signals potential for further upside if momentum continues. On-chain metrics, while not directly tied to oil price movements, show sustained interest, with BTCUSDC on Binance recording a 2.419% gain to $101,769.11 and a robust volume of 46.67 BTC over the same 24-hour period ending at 12:00 UTC Monday. Cross-market analysis highlights a clear inverse correlation between oil price spikes and Bitcoin’s short-term performance; the initial fear-driven dip to $98,600 on BTCUSD at 06:00 UTC Sunday coincided with oil’s peak, but the subsequent stabilization of Brent at $77 by 10:00 UTC Monday aligned with BTC’s recovery. Altcoins like Avalanche (AVAX) on the AVAXBTC pair surged 6.733% to 0.0002267 BTC with a volume of 859.84 BTC, indicating broader market strength as of 12:00 UTC Monday. Institutional money flow between stocks and crypto appears balanced for now, as the minimal S&P 500 futures dip of 0.3% at 09:00 UTC Monday does not suggest a mass exodus from risk assets. However, traders should monitor oil price movements closely; a sustained break above $80 for Brent could reignite inflation fears, potentially impacting crypto negatively. For now, the data supports a cautiously bullish outlook for Bitcoin and select altcoins, with key levels to watch including BTC’s 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages near $95,900 as downside support if selling pressure resumes.

In terms of stock-crypto market correlation, the limited reaction in S&P 500 futures and oil prices suggests that institutional investors are maintaining a balanced risk appetite as of Monday at 09:00 UTC. This stability could drive further interest in crypto-related equities and ETFs, such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), which often tracks BTC price movements. If oil prices remain contained, the reduced fear of stagflation may encourage more capital allocation into high-growth sectors, including cryptocurrencies. Traders should remain vigilant for sudden shifts in sentiment, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate, as these could trigger volatility across both markets. Overall, the current environment favors tactical long positions in Bitcoin and correlated assets, provided key support levels hold.