Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a fascinating divergence between miner fundamentals and on-chain behavior, creating a complex but potentially bullish scenario for traders. While the BTCUSDT pair is trading robustly around $109,433, marking a 2.29% gain in the last 24 hours, the profitability of those who secure the network is under significant strain. According to a recent weekly report from the analytics firm CryptoQuant, daily Bitcoin miner revenue plummeted to a two-month low of just $34 million on June 22. This decline is a direct consequence of dwindling transaction fees and a period of price consolidation, which collectively reduce the incentives for mining operations. The pressure is palpable, as evidenced by a 3.5% dip in the network hashrate since June 16, the most significant pullback in network computing power in nearly a year. This indicates that some less efficient miners are being forced to power down their rigs.

Miner Capitulation Fails to Materialize, Signaling Bullish Conviction

Despite the tightening margins and reduced profitability, the widely anticipated wave of miner capitulation—a period of heavy selling by miners to cover operational costs—has not occurred. This is a critical data point for traders. On-chain analysis reveals that outflows from wallets associated with miners have remained remarkably subdued. These outflows have decreased from a peak of 23,000 BTC per day in February to approximately 6,000 BTC per day currently. Crucially, there have been no significant spikes in transfers from miner wallets to exchanges, which would typically signal an intent to sell. This lack of selling pressure from a cohort that often represents a major source of market supply suggests a strong belief in future price appreciation. They appear to be weathering the storm by relying on cash reserves rather than liquidating their BTC holdings at current levels.

Long-Term Holders and Mid-Sized Miners Accumulate

The conviction among miners is further corroborated by the behavior of some of the oldest and most influential market participants. Wallets tied to so-called Satoshi-era miners, who mined BTC between 2009 and 2011, have shown extreme reluctance to sell. These long-term holders have only sold a mere 150 BTC throughout 2025 so far, a stark contrast to the nearly 10,000 BTC they offloaded in 2024. This hodling behavior from Bitcoin's earliest adopters is often seen as a powerful bellwether for long-term market sentiment. Furthermore, data shows that miner reserves are actually growing. Addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, a cohort often representing mid-sized mining entities, have collectively added 4,000 BTC to their balances since March. This accumulation has pushed their total holdings to the highest point since November 2024, signaling strategic buying during periods of price consolidation.

Trading Implications and Broader Market Context

For traders, this on-chain picture provides a strong foundational argument for a bullish outlook on Bitcoin. The absence of miner selling pressure effectively removes a significant overhang of potential supply, creating a firmer price floor. With BTCUSDT pushing towards the $110,000 resistance level, this underlying support from miners could provide the necessary fuel for a sustained breakout. The broader market appears to be echoing this sentiment. Ethereum (ETH) is showing significant strength, with the ETHUSDT pair surging 6.09% to $2,599. The ETHBTC ratio has also climbed 3.55% to 0.02358, indicating capital rotation into Ethereum. Other altcoins are also performing well, with SOLUSDT up 4.3% to $155.61 and AVAXBTC gaining an impressive 6.73%. This widespread strength suggests that the positive sentiment is not isolated to Bitcoin. Traders should monitor miner outflow metrics closely; any sudden increase could signal a shift in sentiment and serve as an early warning. However, as long as miners continue to hold, it presents a compelling case that the path of least resistance for BTC and the wider crypto market is to the upside.