The Bitcoin (BTC) market is presenting a complex and fascinating picture for traders, characterized by a stark divergence between miner profitability and long-term holder conviction. Despite miner revenues plummeting to a two-month low, signs of forced selling or capitulation remain conspicuously absent. This dynamic suggests a deeply entrenched belief among network participants that current price levels represent a temporary downturn rather than a sustained bear market. The resilience is further bolstered by persistent institutional inflows, creating a tense equilibrium that could break out with significant volatility.

Bitcoin Miners Hold Firm Despite Revenue Slump

According to a weekly report from CryptoQuant, daily mining revenue fell to just $34 million on June 22, marking its weakest point since April and one of the lowest levels recorded over the past year. This decline is a direct consequence of dwindling transaction fees and Bitcoin's price hovering near local lows, which collectively squeeze profitability margins. The pressure is evident in the network's hashrate, which has seen a 3.5% dip since June 16, the most significant pullback in computational power this year. This reduction, while modest, signals that some less efficient miners are feeling the strain from the tighter margins established after the April halving event.

Despite these bearish operational metrics, the anticipated wave of miner selling has not occurred. On-chain data reveals that outflows from miner-controlled wallets have actually decreased, sliding from a peak of 23,000 BTC per day in February to approximately 6,000 BTC currently. Crucially, there have been no significant spikes in transfers to exchange wallets, which would typically indicate an intent to sell. Even wallets associated with Satoshi-era miners, who are often seen as a barometer for long-term sentiment, have remained largely inactive. These early adopters have sold a mere 150 BTC in 2024, a stark contrast to the nearly 10,000 BTC they offloaded in 2023. This behavior strongly implies that miners are playing a long game, choosing to weather the storm by potentially using cash reserves rather than liquidating their BTC holdings at what they perceive to be unfavorable prices.

Institutional Demand Provides a Market Floor

While miners grapple with profitability, institutional players continue to deepen their involvement in the crypto space, providing a strong undercurrent of support for the market. Investment banking giant JPMorgan recently filed for a crypto-centric platform, JPMD, aiming to offer a suite of services including trading, exchange, and digital asset issuance. Furthermore, corporate treasury stalwart Strategy announced the acquisition of over 10,100 BTC, one of its largest purchases this year. These moves are complemented by steady inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, which saw daily net inflows of $408.6 million and $21.4 million, respectively, according to data from Farside Investors. This persistent institutional demand creates a powerful counterbalance to any potential selling pressure from miners or short-term traders.

Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN, noted that the market is undergoing a structural shift in leadership, with corporations and institutions now dominating demand. This shift suggests a more mature and stable market structure compared to previous cycles driven by retail speculation. “With demand remaining strong and sell pressure weak, we maintain a high-conviction view that prices will grind higher in 2025,” Fournier stated. He added that the risk/reward asymmetry favors staying invested, especially as BTC is expected to lead the market until retail investors re-engage or Ethereum regains significant institutional inflows. This institutional conviction is a critical factor for traders to monitor, as it could provide a solid price floor around key technical levels, such as Bitcoin's 50-day simple moving average, which has acted as strong support multiple times this month.