Challenging the Traditional Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle: Insights from Crypto Analyst Michaël van de Poppe

In a recent statement on November 14, 2025, prominent crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe expressed skepticism about the existence of the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle. According to his tweet, he believes that Bitcoin's price movements are more closely tied to macroeconomic factors rather than a rigid cyclical pattern. This perspective shifts the focus for traders, emphasizing the need to monitor global economic indicators over historical halving-based cycles. Van de Poppe suggests that we may not witness a peak in Bitcoin's price during what would typically be considered the peak phase of this 4-year period, urging investors to prioritize macro correlations for better trading decisions.

This viewpoint comes at a time when Bitcoin has shown strong correlations with broader financial markets, including stock indices and interest rate policies. For instance, historical data indicates that Bitcoin often reacts to Federal Reserve announcements, with price surges following rate cuts and pullbacks during tightening cycles. Traders should consider this when analyzing potential entry and exit points. Without relying on the 4-year cycle, strategies could involve watching for macroeconomic triggers such as inflation reports or GDP figures, which have historically influenced Bitcoin's volatility. Van de Poppe's analysis, detailed in his linked video, provides a framework for understanding how these external factors could drive Bitcoin's next moves, potentially leading to more sustained rallies if macro conditions improve.

Trading Implications and Market Sentiment Analysis

From a trading perspective, dismissing the 4-year cycle encourages a more dynamic approach to Bitcoin investments. Investors might look at on-chain metrics like transaction volumes and wallet activity to gauge real-time sentiment, rather than waiting for halving events. For example, recent periods have seen Bitcoin trading volumes spike during positive macro news, such as stimulus announcements, leading to short-term price gains of up to 10-15% within 24 hours. This correlation highlights opportunities in swing trading, where positions can be taken based on upcoming economic data releases. Resistance levels around previous all-time highs, often tested during macro-driven rallies, become key watchpoints. If macro conditions remain favorable, Bitcoin could target new highs, but traders should set stop-losses to mitigate risks from sudden policy shifts.

Moreover, institutional flows play a crucial role in this macro-correlated environment. Data from various reports shows increased Bitcoin adoption by institutions during low-interest-rate periods, boosting liquidity and price stability. Van de Poppe's stance aligns with this, suggesting that Bitcoin's performance is intertwined with global liquidity trends. For crypto traders, this means diversifying strategies to include correlations with assets like gold or equities, which often move in tandem during economic uncertainty. Long-term holders might benefit from dollar-cost averaging during macro dips, while day traders could capitalize on volatility spikes around key economic calendars. Overall, this analysis underscores the importance of adapting to real-world economic drivers over outdated cycle theories.

In conclusion, Michaël van de Poppe's insights challenge long-held beliefs in the crypto community, promoting a macro-focused trading lens for Bitcoin. By integrating these ideas, traders can better navigate market uncertainties, focusing on verifiable economic indicators for informed decisions. This approach not only enhances risk management but also opens up new trading opportunities in a rapidly evolving financial landscape.