Bitcoin (BTC) Overcomes Bearish Futures and Options Signals: Key Trading Outlook Amid Geopolitical Risks

According to Valentine Fournier of BRN, Bitcoin is overcoming bearish futures and options signals due to long-term structural demand, with entities like Metaplanet bolstering BTC holdings as a strategic reserve. Fournier added that Solana (SOL) could outperform in a recovery, while Ethereum (ETH) may regain institutional support once volatility eases. Mean Theodorou from Coinstash expects ongoing volatility from U.S.-Iran tensions and key events like Fed Chair Powell's testimony and core PCE data, cautioning traders on altcoins like DOGE and ADA.
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Financial markets demonstrated resilience amid escalating Middle East tensions following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Initial risk-off sentiment pushed Brent and WTI crude oil prices up 3% during early Asian trading hours on Monday June 23, according to Wall Street Journal reports. However, both benchmarks reversed gains by 4:00 AM ET as oil retreated below $80 per barrel. Bitcoin simultaneously rebounded from a weekend low of $98,000 to $105,475 by 10:00 AM ET June 24, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.21%. BRN analyst Valentine Fournier noted this reversal reflects bitcoin's strengthening institutional adoption, citing Tokyo-listed Metaplanet's $117 million purchase of 1,111 BTC at $105,681 per coin on June 23 as reported by CoinDesk. This follows Cardone Capital's 1,000 BTC acquisition and positions bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset despite short-term volatility. Mean Theodorou of Coinstash anticipates continued market sensitivity to U.S.-Iran developments and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Congressional testimony on June 24-25. Altcoins face pressure with DOGE, ADA and SOL recording double-digit percentage losses last week amid broad de-risking. Upcoming macroeconomic catalysts include June's core PCE data release on June 28 and EU-Canada security pact negotiations concluding June 23. Geopolitical uncertainty has accelerated corporate bitcoin accumulation while testing crypto's correlation with traditional safe havens. Oil's failure to sustain gains despite Hormuz blockade threats suggests diminishing market sensitivity to Middle East conflicts, creating potential divergence opportunities between commodity and digital asset markets. Bitcoin's rebound from $98,000 aligns with CoinDesk analysis identifying $98,200 as the bull market support line based on UTXO cost basis metrics. The recovery occurred alongside positive moves in tech-heavy Nasdaq futures, indicating persistent risk appetite among institutional traders. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $6.4 million net inflows on June 23 per Farside Investors data, extending cumulative inflows to $46.64 billion. Conversely, spot ether ETFs saw $11.3 million outflows amid fading short-term institutional interest. Cross-market correlations reveal bitcoin's 24-hour 4.4% surge to $105,475 outpaced WTI's 0.8% decline while gold dipped 0.16%. Solana outperformed major assets with an 8.05% gain to $143.57, validating Fournier's recovery outlook. Derivatives markets signal caution with BTC annualized basis on offshore exchanges narrowing to 5% versus CME's 7%, and negative cumulative volume delta indicating dominant selling pressure. OKX funding rates remained marginally positive at 0.0007% while TRX and BCH funding rates dipped below -0.01%, reflecting bearish altcoin positioning. Technical indicators show the dollar index breaking its January downtrend to reach 99.29, potentially capping gains for dollar-denominated crypto assets. Bitcoin's hashrate held steady at 835 EH/s with hashprice at $50.94 per PH/s, indicating miner stability. Ethereum's CESR staking rate rose 23 basis points to 3.13%, suggesting rising network participation. Market structure divergence emerges as BTC dominance slipped 0.07% to 65.67% while the ETH/BTC ratio gained 0.59%. LINK surged 10.7% to $12.94, leading major altcoins as AI-focused tokens reacted to Hyperliquid's stress test performance during the risk-off event. With CME preparing to launch 5-year quoted futures and $15.48 million OP tokens unlocking June 30, volatility expectations remain elevated. Crypto equities showed mixed pre-market movement with COIN down 1.69% and CORZ declining 0.51%, reflecting sector-wide caution ahead of Powell's testimony. Frequently asked questions include: How do Middle East conflicts typically impact cryptocurrency prices? Historical data shows initial risk-off reactions followed by rapid recoveries when conflicts don't escalate, as demonstrated by bitcoin's V-shaped rebound from $98,000 within 24 hours of airstrike news. What institutional signals support bitcoin's long-term demand? Public disclosures from Metaplanet, Cardone Capital, and Texas treasury allocations establish bitcoin as an emerging institutional reserve asset, with cumulative ETF holdings reaching 1.22 million BTC. Which technical levels are critical for bitcoin this week? The $98,200 support identified by CoinDesk analysts remains key, while resistance emerges at $106,000 based on June 24 highs. Derivatives positioning suggests breakouts above $107,000 could trigger short squeezes given negative funding in several altcoins.
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