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Bitcoin BTC Overcomes Bearish Signals: Trading Strategies Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Events | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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6/24/2025 11:06:55 AM

Bitcoin BTC Overcomes Bearish Signals: Trading Strategies Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Events

Bitcoin BTC Overcomes Bearish Signals: Trading Strategies Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Events

According to BRN analyst Valentine Fournier, Bitcoin is overcoming bearish futures and options signals due to growing long-term structural demand, with entities like Texas and Metaplanet solidifying BTC as a strategic reserve, potentially leading to a rebound. Fournier added that Solana SOL could outperform in a recovery, while Ethereum ETH may regain support as volatility cools. Mean Theodorou, co-founder at Coinstash, stated that volatility may persist due to macro conditions like the U.S.-Iran situation, and altcoins such as DOGE, ADA, and SOL are risky amid recent double-digit losses. Key trading events include Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on June 24 and 25 and core PCE data on June 23, which could influence market movements.

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Analysis

Financial markets exhibited resilience despite escalating U.S.-Iran tensions following weekend airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Brent and WTI crude initially surged 3% early Monday as Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz but reversed gains within hours, settling below $80 per barrel according to Wall Street Journal reports. Bitcoin mirrored this trajectory, dipping below $98,000 before rebounding to $105,247.63 by market close—a 3.98% 24-hour increase per real-time trading data. S&P 500 futures rose 0.21% to 6,030.50, indicating synchronized risk-asset recovery. Valentine Fournier of BRN Analytics emphasized bitcoin's institutional adoption momentum, noting Japanese firm Metaplanet purchased 1,111 BTC at $105,681 per coin, raising its total holdings to 11,111 BTC with a $95,700 average cost basis as verified by CoinDesk. Meanwhile, Cardone Capital disclosed adding 1,000 BTC to corporate reserves. Key macroeconomic catalysts include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Congressional testimony on June 24-25 and June core PCE data, both potentially influencing crypto-stock correlations. Coinstash co-founder Mean Theodorou observed altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) suffered double-digit percentage losses during initial risk-off sentiment, though SOL later recovered 7.83% to $143.57 with $728 million 24-hour volume. AI-focused developments emerged as decentralized exchange Hyperliquid demonstrated DeFi resilience during the volatility, highlighted by AI agent Aixbt's commentary on stress-test performance. Ethereum faced short-term institutional outflow pressures with spot ETH ETFs recording $11.3 million daily outflows according to Farside Investors data. CME Group's pending launch of spot-quoted futures with five-year maturities for BTC and ETH signals deepening institutional integration. Geopolitical risk recalibration dominated early-week price action, with the obscure OIL memecoin surging 500% Sunday on Strait of Hormuz fears—exemplifying crypto's bifurcation between institutional adoption and speculative vectors. EU-Canada security pact negotiations and NATO summits add further macro complexity. Trading implications crystallize around institutional accumulation countering derivatives pessimism. Bitcoin's recovery above $98,200—identified by analysts as the bull market support line—occurred alongside positive S&P 500 futures movements, reinforcing crypto-equities correlation. Annualized BTC futures basis narrowed to 5% on offshore exchanges versus 7% on CME, approaching the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.39%. Deribit options data revealed near-dated put premiums, reflecting persistent downside protection demand despite spot recovery. ETH/BTC ratio increased 0.59% to 0.02218, while ADA and DOT led altcoin rebounds with 6.18% and 8.21% gains respectively. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) remained negative for most assets including BTC, signaling underlying selling pressure despite price appreciation. Funding rates turned negative for TRON (TRX), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), and Stellar (XLM), indicating concentrated short positioning. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $6.4 million net inflows, extending cumulative holdings to $46.64 billion across 1.22 million BTC. AI sector activity intensified with Hyperliquid's stress-test validation potentially boosting DeFi perpetual platforms; OKX's planned Sahara AI (SAHARA) listing on June 26 may catalyze AI-token volatility. Solana's technical structure showed strength, outperforming with 7.83% gains as BRN's Fournier predicted. Crypto equities diverged: Circle (CRCL) surged 7.1% pre-market while Coinbase (COIN) dipped 1.69% amid regulatory uncertainties. The dollar index (DXY) breached January downtrend resistance at 99.29 (+0.60%), potentially capping dollar-denominated crypto gains. Bitcoin's hashprice held at $50.94 with hashrate averaging 835 EH/s, indicating miner stability. Gold's 0.16% decline to $3,380.20 weakened traditional haven appeal. LINK surged 9.75% to $12.95 with $11.43-$12.95 trading range, reflecting renewed oracle demand. ETH staking yields rose 23 bps to 3.13%, improving network economics. Strategic opportunities include monitoring Powell testimony for rate clues favoring interest-rate-sensitive tokens, tracking NATO summit outcomes for risk-appetite shifts, and positioning for July token unlocks including $109 million SUI release on July 1. AI infrastructure tokens may benefit from Hyperliquid's demonstrated robustness during geopolitical stress. Altcoin rebounds require caution given CVD negativity and concentrated derivatives shorts. Bitcoin's dominance dipped 0.07% to 65.67% as capital rotated into large-cap alts. Institutional accumulation patterns suggest corporations view sub-$100k BTC as strategic entry points. How did Middle East tensions immediately impact cryptocurrency prices? Initial risk-off sentiment triggered bitcoin's drop below $98,000 and double-digit altcoin declines, but rapid recovery occurred within 24 hours as oil prices retreated and equity futures stabilized, highlighting crypto's evolving resilience to geopolitical shocks. What technical levels are critical for bitcoin's trend? The $98,200 level identified as bull market support held during Monday's dip, while sustained trading above $105,000 could target new highs. CVD negativity and DXY strength warrant monitoring for potential pullbacks. Which sectors show asymmetric opportunities? AI and DeFi tokens like those on Hyperliquid's platform may benefit from proven stress resilience, while large unlock events for SUI and ENA create potential volatility arbitrage openings.

Crypto Rover

@rovercrc

160K-strong crypto YouTuber and Cryptosea founder, dedicated to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency education.

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