Bitcoin Price Navigates Geopolitical Tides and Conflicting On-Chain Data

Risk assets, including major cryptocurrencies, experienced a wave of relief after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a delay in potential military action against Iran. This geopolitical de-escalation provided a temporary tailwind for markets, with Bitcoin (BTC) climbing to approximately $106,000, marking a 0.9% increase over the past 24 hours. The broader crypto market followed suit, with the top 20 digital assets gaining 0.77%. This sentiment shift was mirrored in traditional markets where oil prices retreated by 1.7% after a sustained rally, and European stock indices posted gains. According to prediction market Polymarket, the probability of U.S. military intervention before the end of the month dropped from 70% to 40% following the news. However, the reprieve may be short-lived. As AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth noted to Yahoo Finance, the two-week decision window means the issue will continue to loom over markets, injecting a degree of uncertainty that traders must price in. For now, Bitcoin is trading up 1.63% from Thursday's 4 p.m. ET price, reaching $106,015.34, while Ethereum (ETH) is up 1.85% to $2,554.74.

Institutional Maturity or an Imminent $92K Correction for BTC?

Despite the market's immediate positive reaction, underlying on-chain metrics present a divided and complex picture for Bitcoin's future trajectory. On one hand, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode suggests that the current subdued on-chain activity might not be a bearish signal, but rather an indication of a maturing market. This perspective posits that the market is increasingly dominated by institutional players who execute large, but less frequent, transactions, thus reducing the overall on-chain noise. Conversely, a stark warning comes from a new CryptoQuant report, which flags a significant risk of Bitcoin dropping to $92,000 or even lower if demand does not pick up. The report highlights several concerning trends: spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have plummeted by 60% since April, large-holder (whale) accumulation has been halved, and short-term holders have offloaded a staggering 800,000 BTC since late May. These divergent analyses create a challenging environment for traders, balancing the potential for a mature, stable market against the imminent threat of a sharp correction driven by waning demand and increased selling pressure from short-term speculators.

Derivatives Market Signals Caution Amid Stable Open Interest

A closer look at the derivatives market reveals a cautious but stable environment. According to Velo data, total open interest (OI) across major exchanges sits at $56.73 billion, a considerable figure but still well below the $65.95 billion peak observed on June 11. Binance has reclaimed some ground, with its OI at $24.5 billion. While BTC and ETH dominate, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has emerged as a notable gainer, posting an $83.4 million increase in notional OI in the last 24 hours, per Laevitas data. In the options market, positioning on Deribit shows ETH OI hitting a yearly high of 2.58 million contracts, with a strong call-skew at the $3,200 strike for the June 27 expiry. BTC interest is clustered higher, between $100,000 and $110,000. Funding rates for perpetual swaps remain broadly positive, with BTC and ETH at 10.95% APR on Bybit, suggesting long-side demand for leverage. However, recent liquidations tell a story of short-squeezes; Coinglass data shows $131.89 million in total liquidations over 24 hours, with 56% being short positions. Dense liquidation clusters between $106,000 and $108,000 on Binance heatmaps confirm that recent price action has cleared out layered short leverage, but directional conviction appears muted ahead of the next major options expiry.

Technical Levels and Crypto Stocks to Watch

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has achieved a critical milestone by reclaiming its monthly open after a successful retest of the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). This price action signals a potential bullish shift in short-term momentum. BTC is now trading above Monday's low and is attempting to recapture the entire range, with the next key resistance at the Monday high near $109,000. However, the price is currently facing resistance from the 20-day EMA. For the bullish case to strengthen, BTC must maintain closes above the monthly open and, more significantly, push above the January highs to invalidate a weekly swing failure pattern. In the crypto-related equity space, markets are showing mixed but generally positive pre-market activity following the Juneteenth holiday. Coinbase (COIN) closed Wednesday up a remarkable 16.32% and added another 1.03% in pre-market trading to reach $298.34. MicroStrategy (MSTR) and mining stocks like Riot Platforms (RIOT) and CleanSpark (CLSK) also saw modest pre-market gains, indicating a positive correlation with Bitcoin's recent stability and suggesting that traders in traditional markets are positioning for potential upside in the digital asset sector.