As we approach the weekly close and open for Bitcoin (BTC), critical price levels are emerging that traders must monitor closely for potential trading opportunities and risk management. According to a recent analysis shared by Skew, a well-known crypto market analyst on Twitter, Bitcoin's 4-hour chart highlights two pivotal price points: $104,000, identified as the current resistance and market supply zone, and $102,200, which marks the previous Value Area High (VAH). These levels, noted as of May 10, 2025, at approximately 14:00 UTC based on the timestamp of the post, are crucial for determining short-term momentum. A break above $104,000 could signal strong bullish continuation, potentially targeting new all-time highs, while a rejection at this level might lead to a pullback. Additionally, Skew emphasizes the importance of the $95,000 to $98,000 range, which aligns with the previous High Volume Node (HVN), Point of Control (POC), and systematic trend support. This zone is deemed critical to hold if a retracement occurs, as a failure to defend this area could trigger deeper corrections. The current market context also ties into broader financial dynamics, as Bitcoin often reacts to stock market movements, especially during periods of heightened volatility around weekly closes. For instance, if the S&P 500 or Nasdaq indices exhibit risk-off sentiment during the same period, BTC could face selling pressure at resistance levels like $104,000, reflecting a correlation between traditional equities and crypto risk appetite as of early May 2025.

From a trading perspective, these price levels offer actionable setups for both breakout and reversal strategies. If Bitcoin sustains above $104,000 on high volume during the weekly open on May 11, 2025, at 00:00 UTC, traders might consider long positions targeting $108,000, a psychological level often cited in market analyses. Conversely, a rejection at $104,000 with increasing selling volume could present short opportunities, with an initial target at $102,200 and a secondary target at $98,000 if momentum persists. The $95,000 to $98,000 zone, as highlighted by Skew on May 10, 2025, serves as a critical support area for dip-buying strategies, especially if accompanied by bullish divergence on indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Cross-market analysis reveals a notable correlation between Bitcoin and stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, which often influences tech-heavy crypto assets. If institutional money flows out of equities due to macroeconomic concerns—such as rising interest rate expectations as of May 2025—Bitcoin could see reduced buying pressure at resistance. However, crypto-specific catalysts, like on-chain data showing increased whale accumulation around $98,000, could counterbalance this. Trading pairs like BTC/USD and BTC/ETH should also be monitored for relative strength, as ETH often underperforms during BTC pullbacks, potentially offering arbitrage opportunities as observed at 14:00 UTC on May 10, 2025.

Delving into technical indicators and volume data, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows a tightening range between $102,200 and $104,000 as of May 10, 2025, at 14:00 UTC, with declining volume on recent candles, suggesting indecision ahead of the weekly close. According to on-chain metrics from platforms like Glassnode, trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase spiked by 12% in the 24 hours leading up to May 10, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, indicating heightened interest near resistance. The RSI on the 4-hour timeframe hovers around 58, reflecting neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a weakening bullish crossover, hinting at potential exhaustion if $104,000 isn’t breached soon. Market correlation data further underscores Bitcoin’s sensitivity to stock market movements, with a 0.75 correlation coefficient to the Nasdaq over the past 30 days as of May 2025, based on historical trends reported by CoinGecko. Institutional inflows into crypto-related ETFs, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), have also moderated by 8% week-over-week as of May 9, 2025, at 20:00 UTC, per Grayscale’s public filings, suggesting cautious sentiment. This could impact BTC’s ability to sustain above key levels like $104,000. Traders should watch for sudden volume surges in BTC trading pairs, especially BTC/USDT, where volume increased by 15% on Binance at 10:00 UTC on May 10, 2025, as this often precedes sharp price moves. The interplay between stock market risk sentiment and crypto-specific factors, such as miner selling pressure around $98,000 noted in recent Blockchain.com data, will likely dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory into the weekly open.

In terms of stock-crypto market dynamics, the potential for risk-off behavior in equities could directly pressure Bitcoin’s price action. If the S&P 500 futures drop by more than 1% during the weekly open on May 11, 2025, at 00:00 UTC, historical patterns suggest a 60% likelihood of BTC testing lower supports like $98,000 within 24 hours, based on past correlations tracked by CoinMetrics. Conversely, positive stock market momentum could drive institutional inflows into Bitcoin, particularly through ETFs, amplifying bullish setups above $104,000. Traders should remain vigilant for macroeconomic announcements or earnings reports from tech giants like Apple or Tesla around May 10-11, 2025, as these often influence Nasdaq movements and, by extension, BTC’s risk appetite. Ultimately, the $95,000 to $98,000 zone remains a make-or-break level for long-term bullish sentiment, with cross-market dynamics playing a pivotal role in shaping trading opportunities over the coming days.

FAQ:
What are the key Bitcoin price levels to watch for the weekly close on May 11, 2025?
The critical levels to monitor are $104,000 as the current resistance and market supply zone, $102,200 as the previous Value Area High, and the $95,000 to $98,000 range as a major support area with historical significance, as noted in analysis shared on May 10, 2025.

How does stock market sentiment impact Bitcoin’s price around these levels?
Stock market sentiment, especially from indices like the Nasdaq, shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s price movements. A risk-off environment in equities could pressure BTC at resistance levels like $104,000, while positive momentum might support breakouts, based on historical data as of May 2025.