Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Trump's Fiscal Policy Boosts BTC as Inflation Hedge, But Crypto Tax Provision Fails in Senate Bill

According to @WhiteHouse, President Trump's recent social media posts suggesting massive economic growth will offset deficits from his proposed $3.8 trillion tax cut package are boosting the case for Bitcoin (BTC) as an inflation hedge. The source material highlights analyst Will Clemente's view that such loose fiscal policy makes U.S. Treasuries less attractive while strengthening the appeal of hard assets like Bitcoin and gold to protect against potential currency debasement. Following the news, BTC has been volatile, with the BTC/USDT pair trading around $109,400. In a separate but related development, the U.S. Senate passed the major budget bill without including a crypto-friendly tax provision championed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, which would have waived capital gains taxes on small crypto transactions. The bill now heads to the House for further debate.
SourceAnalysis
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable uptick, with its price pushing towards $109,400, reflecting a 2.3% gain over the past 24 hours. The surge followed a pivotal statement from President Donald Trump regarding U.S. fiscal policy, which has intensified the debate around inflation and deficit spending. As of the latest data, BTC traded robustly above the $109,000 mark, after navigating a 24-hour range between $106,849 and a high of $109,650. The market's reaction was swift after a post on Truth Social from President Trump on June 29, 2025, where he addressed fiscally conservative Republicans. He urged them not to be overly aggressive with spending cuts, promising that economic expansion would more than compensate for any resulting deficits. This rhetoric has fueled a bullish case for assets like Bitcoin and gold, which are often sought as hedges against currency debasement.
Fiscal Tensions and the Bull Case for Hard Assets
President Trump's message, “We will make it all up, times 10, with GROWTH, more than ever before,” was aimed at unifying his party behind a massive tax-and-spending package known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” This legislation, sprawling over 900 pages, proposes approximately $3.8 trillion in tax cuts, largely by making the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent. While it includes some spending reductions, the scale of the tax cuts has led nonpartisan analysts to project it could add trillions to the national debt. This prospect of significant deficit spending has amplified concerns about long-term inflation. Crypto analyst Will Clemente captured this sentiment, questioning the viability of holding long-term U.S. Treasuries at current yields in such an environment. He stated, “How can you read this and not hold any Bitcoin or gold.” His comment underscores a growing belief among investors that expansionary fiscal policies will erode the value of fiat currencies and fixed-income assets, thereby increasing the appeal of scarce assets like BTC.
Legislative Update: Crypto Tax Provision Fails in Senate
While the broader fiscal narrative provided a tailwind for Bitcoin, the digital asset industry faced a legislative setback in Washington. As the Senate narrowly passed the major budget bill on a 50-50 vote broken by the Vice President, a key crypto-focused amendment failed to make it into the final version. Senator Cynthia Lummis had championed a proposal to provide much-needed clarity on crypto taxation, including a waiver for capital gains taxes on small transactions. Despite intense lobbying from the industry, the amendment was not included in the package that advanced. This outcome means that the path to rationalizing the U.S. tax code for digital assets remains uncertain, forcing such efforts back to standalone legislation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the House to act quickly on the broader bill, emphasizing the administration's goal to make the U.S. a premier destination for capital and innovation, a sentiment the crypto industry shares but now must pursue through other legislative avenues.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Price Action and Volume Dynamics
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's recent price action has been constructive, confirming the bullish sentiment. Over a key 24-hour trading period from June 28 to June 29, BTC carved out a range between $107,194 and $108,489. A critical support level was established near $107,300, which held firm during several tests. The upward momentum was validated by a significant surge in trading volume, which peaked at 7,538 BTC in a three-hour window on June 29. This influx of volume indicates strong buying interest. More recently, the BTC/USDT pair has shown continued strength, breaking above immediate resistance to trade at $109,400. The broader altcoin market has followed suit, with Ethereum (ETH) rallying over 6% to near $2,600 and Cardano (ADA) surging almost 9% to top $0.60. The ETH/BTC pair also showed strength, gaining over 3.5%, suggesting capital is rotating across the crypto ecosystem. For traders, the immediate support for BTC now lies closer to the $108,000 psychological level, with resistance being tested at the recent highs around $109,650. A sustained break above this level could open the door for a move toward the $110,000 milestone.
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