Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a complex landscape of U.S. fiscal policy debates and impending macroeconomic data releases, creating a tense but opportunity-rich environment for traders. As of recent trading sessions, the BTCUSDT pair hovered around $107,148, experiencing a 24-hour fluctuation between a low of $106,766 and a high of $108,746. This volatility comes as the market digests significant political developments from Washington. On June 29, 2025, former President Donald Trump made a notable statement on social media regarding his proposed tax-and-spending package, urging fellow Republicans to support it by promising that economic growth would more than compensate for any resulting deficits. He wrote, “We will make it all up, times 10, with GROWTH, more than ever before.” This assertion has amplified the bull case for assets like Bitcoin and gold, which are often seen as hedges against fiscal profligacy and potential currency debasement.

Fiscal Policy Jitters Bolster Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Appeal

The legislative proposal at the center of the debate, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” is a massive 900-page document outlining approximately $3.8 trillion in tax cuts. It aims to make permanent the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions while introducing new breaks, such as eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay. However, the bill also proposes significant spending cuts to programs like Medicaid, creating deep divisions within the Republican party. Moderates are concerned about the impact on their constituents, while fiscal conservatives are demanding even deeper cuts to offset the tax reductions. This internal conflict casts doubt on the bill's passage and adds to market uncertainty. The prospect of adding trillions to the existing $36.2 trillion national debt, should the growth projections fall short, is a primary concern for investors. This scenario strengthens the investment thesis for scarce, non-sovereign assets. Crypto analyst Will Clemente captured this sentiment, questioning the logic of holding long-term U.S. Treasuries at current yields in such an environment, while strongly suggesting exposure to Bitcoin and gold.

Week Ahead: Powell's Testimony and Inflation Data Take Center Stage

Looking ahead, the market’s focus is squarely on two major events: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual monetary policy testimony and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Powell is expected to face intense questioning about the path of interest rates, especially amid political pressure for cuts. Traders will be scrutinizing his language for any dovish signals. As Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, noted, emerging cracks in the labor market and weak housing activity provide grounds for the Fed to consider a dovish shift, potentially guiding towards a rate cut in September. Any indication of looser monetary policy would likely be bullish for risk assets, including Bitcoin, which has shown resilience by holding above the critical $100,000 level despite recent geopolitical tensions.

The Core PCE data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is the week's other marquee event. The market consensus anticipates a benign 0.1% month-on-month increase, which would support the case for rate cuts. However, this optimism is tempered by the looming expiration of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on July 9. Analysts at ING have pointed out that the inflationary impact of new tariffs could complicate the Fed's decision-making process, potentially delaying rate cuts until later in the year. Should the jobs market weaken significantly, a more aggressive 50 basis-point cut could be on the table. This complex interplay of fiscal proposals, monetary policy signals, and inflation data creates a highly fluid trading environment. For altcoins, this macro backdrop is also critical. The ETHBTC pair showed relative strength with a 0.6% gain, trading around 0.02322, while coins like Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX) posted significant gains against Bitcoin, rising 3.6% and 6.7% respectively, indicating a selective appetite for risk within the crypto ecosystem.