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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Why July Could Bring Extreme Volatility After 40 Days of Range-Bound Trading | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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7/5/2025 8:41:00 AM

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Why July Could Bring Extreme Volatility After 40 Days of Range-Bound Trading

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Why July Could Bring Extreme Volatility After 40 Days of Range-Bound Trading

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) has been stuck in a tight 10% trading range for 40 days, oscillating between approximately $101K and $111K, which has pushed its 30-day realized volatility below 30%. This prolonged period of low volatility and range-bound trading is negatively impacting the broader market, as many other digital assets are underperforming Bitcoin. The analysis highlights that July is shaping up to be a potentially volatile month, with key catalysts including a proposed expansionary US budget bill, a July 9 tariff deadline, and a July 22 deadline for a crypto executive order. Despite the current calm, positive sentiment was noted from the launch of the first US-based Solana (SOL) staking ETF (SSK), which experienced strong initial trading volume. The analysis suggests that because crypto market leverage remains contained, traders might consider maintaining spot exposure while patiently awaiting the next major market move.

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Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is demonstrating significant strength, mounting a powerful rebound towards the $110,000 price level after a brief dip below $106,000 earlier in the week. The leading cryptocurrency recently touched its highest point since June 11, trading around $109,500, marking a notable 3.5% increase over a 24-hour period. This price action saw the BTC/USDT pair reach a daily high of $109,022.89. The bullish momentum appears correlated with a broader risk-on sentiment in traditional markets, spurred by geopolitical developments. Specifically, the announcement of a new U.S. trade deal with Vietnam seemed to invigorate investors, pushing the tech-heavy Nasdaq index up by 0.8%.



Bitcoin Breaks Its Range as Altcoins Feel the Squeeze



This recent surge provides a welcome change of pace for traders who have been navigating a prolonged period of consolidation. For 40 days, Bitcoin has been trapped within a tight 10% channel, oscillating roughly between $101,000 and $111,000. According to analysis from Andy Baehr, this period of low volatility, with 30-day realized volatility dropping below 30%, has been crimping trading opportunities and causing restlessness among market participants. While range-bound trading can be seen as a positive for Bitcoin's store-of-value narrative by demonstrating stability, it has had a detrimental effect on the broader altcoin market. Without strong leadership from BTC, many digital assets have struggled. The CoinDesk 20 Index, a measure of the broader market, has lagged behind Bitcoin by approximately 5% over the past month. Even Ethereum (ETH), which saw a strong bounce previously, has felt the pressure, with the ETH/BTC pair hovering around 0.0233, indicating relative weakness against Bitcoin during this phase.



Solana Shines with ETF Debut Amidst Market Calm



However, a significant bright spot emerged in the altcoin space with the successful launch of the REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF (SSK) in the U.S. This marks the first crypto staking product of its kind available to American investors and its debut was met with remarkable enthusiasm. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas reported that the SSK ETF achieved an impressive $20 million in trading volume on its first day, placing it in the top 1% for a new launch. This performance starkly contrasts with the mere $1 million in first-day volume seen by the futures-based Solana ETF (SOLZ) that launched in March. This strong institutional interest in Solana (SOL) provides a bullish undercurrent for the asset, even as its SOL/USDT pair saw a minor 1.38% dip to trade around $148.18 in the last 24 hours, after reaching a high of $151.20.



A Volatile July on the Horizon for Crypto Traders



Looking ahead, the market may be on the cusp of a significant volatility spike. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, has highlighted July as a month crowded with potential market-moving events stemming from U.S. policy. Three key dates are on every trader's radar. First is the anticipated signing of a major expansionary budget bill by Friday, which could inject $3.3 trillion into the economy and is viewed by many as bullish for scarce assets like Bitcoin. Second is the July 9 tariff deadline, which could introduce further trade-related turbulence. Finally, July 22 marks the final deadline for action on a long-awaited crypto executive order, which could include updates on a potential U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Lunde suggests that while these events could trigger significant price swings, the current market structure is not overly leveraged. He notes that "crypto-leverage remains contained," which reduces the risk of a massive, cascading deleveraging event and favors a strategy of maintaining spot exposure while patiently awaiting these catalysts.

Crypto Rover

@rovercrc

160K-strong crypto YouTuber and Cryptosea founder, dedicated to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency education.

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