Bitcoin (BTC) is demonstrating significant strength, mounting a powerful recovery towards the $110,000 psychological level after a brief but sharp dip below $106,000 earlier in the week. As of recent trading sessions, the BTCUSDT pair reached a high of $109,436.45, its strongest point since mid-June, before settling around $108,165. This represents a gain of over 3.5% in a 24-hour period, signaling renewed buyer conviction. The bullish momentum in the crypto market appears correlated with a broader risk-on sentiment in traditional finance, spurred by President Trump's announcement of a new trade agreement with Vietnam. This news helped lift equities, with the Nasdaq Composite Index climbing 0.8%. This cross-market correlation underscores the increasing sensitivity of digital assets to macroeconomic developments, presenting both opportunities and risks for traders monitoring multiple asset classes.

ETF Momentum and Altcoin Strength

Beyond Bitcoin, the market sentiment received a significant boost from the launch of the REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF (SSK), the first physically-backed crypto staking ETF to debut in the United States. The launch was met with exceptional demand, as noted by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, who highlighted that the ETF's trading volume surged to $20 million on its first day. He emphasized this was a "really strong" launch, placing it in the top 1% of all new ETF debuts. This performance starkly contrasts with the mere $1 million in first-day volume seen by the futures-based Solana ETF (SOLZ) that launched in March, indicating a strong institutional and retail appetite for direct exposure with staking rewards. While the SOLUSDT pair saw a daily dip, trading around $148, it had tested resistance at $153.73, showing volatility within a defined range. Elsewhere, other altcoins are displaying notable strength against Bitcoin, with the AVAXBTC pair rallying an impressive 6.73% on significant volume, suggesting capital is rotating into promising layer-1 alternatives.

Navigating a Potentially Volatile July

Traders should brace for a period of heightened volatility in July, driven by a confluence of major policy events from the Trump administration. According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, several key dates loom large. First is the anticipated signing of a massive expansionary budget bill, which could inject $3.3 trillion into the economy. Lunde suggests this fiscal expansion could be inherently bullish for scarce assets like Bitcoin. Following this, a July 9 tariff deadline could introduce fresh trade tensions and market uncertainty. Finally, July 22 marks the final deadline for action on a much-anticipated crypto executive order, which could include updates on the establishment of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Lunde aptly summarized the month as being "crowded with latent Trump volatility." However, he also observed that the current market structure is not overly frothy, with leverage remaining contained, which may prevent a massive deleveraging event and favor a patient, spot-focused strategy.

Long-Term Holders Signal Unwavering Conviction

Despite the short-term price fluctuations and looming macro events, on-chain data reveals a powerful undercurrent of strength from Bitcoin's most committed investors. While some profit-taking from Long-Term Holders (LTHs)—defined by Glassnode as wallets holding BTC for over 155 days—has been a factor in preventing a new all-time high, a wider view shows remarkable patience. Glassnode data shows that the portion of circulating supply that has not moved in at least three years remains at a staggering 45%. This is the same level seen in February 2024, just after the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, underscoring the resilience of this cohort. To put this in perspective, three years ago, BTC was trading around $20,000 during the Terra/LUNA and 3AC crisis. Furthermore, the supply that has been dormant for five or more years is holding steady at 30%. This data strongly suggests that while some LTHs are trimming positions, the vast majority are holding with conviction, likely anticipating significantly higher prices before they consider selling in size. This steadfast accumulation provides a strong support base for the market, absorbing selling pressure and setting the stage for future price appreciation.