Bitcoin Price Analysis: Downside Liquidity Exhausted and Potential Bounce to $95K-$100K

In the latest Bitcoin market developments, prominent crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has highlighted key indicators suggesting that the cryptocurrency may be nearing a turning point after recent downside pressure. According to van de Poppe, all downside liquidity for Bitcoin has been absorbed, even below the $92,000 level, and the CME futures gap has officially closed. This comes amid extreme market fear, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting to 11, its lowest point since the Luna crash in 2022. Such conditions have fueled terrible sentiment among traders, but van de Poppe notes that various arguments are aligning for a potential recovery. For Bitcoin traders, this setup presents intriguing opportunities, as historical patterns indicate that such extreme deviations often precede significant bounces. As of November 18, 2025, Bitcoin's price action shows it trading around these lows, with on-chain metrics reflecting shaken-out positions and reduced selling pressure.

From a technical standpoint, van de Poppe emphasizes the enormous gap between Bitcoin's current price and its 20-day moving average, a rare occurrence that has only happened a few times in the asset's history. This divergence is equally pronounced on the weekly chart, signaling oversold conditions that typically call for a rebound. He anticipates at least a bounce toward the $95,000 to $100,000 range, though he cautions against expecting a sharp V-shaped recovery. Instead, a period of consolidation is more likely before any sustained upward continuation. Traders should monitor key support levels around $85,000, as a dip there could represent the absolute low if sentiment doesn't improve. In terms of trading volumes, recent sessions have seen heightened activity on the downside, with Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume spiking as liquidity pools were tapped. This shakeout phase, as described, is particularly poised to leave behind believers in the traditional four-year cycle, forcing a reevaluation of long-term strategies. For those eyeing entry points, this could be a prime moment to accumulate, especially if we see confirmation from rising on-chain activity or institutional inflows.

Market Sentiment and Trading Opportunities in BTC

The extreme fear indicated by the Fear & Greed Index at 11 underscores a capitulation-like environment, reminiscent of past market bottoms. Van de Poppe's analysis suggests this isn't necessarily the final low, but the lining up of technical factors—such as the closed CME gap and absorbed liquidity—builds a case for optimism. Bitcoin's price has recently tested sub-$92,000 levels, with timestamps from November 18, 2025, showing closure of the gap that opened during weekend trading. Traders can look at multiple pairs like BTC/USD and BTC/USDT on major exchanges, where volume data reveals over $50 billion in daily trades amid this volatility. Resistance levels to watch include the $95,000 mark, which aligns with the 20-day MA, potentially offering short-term scalping opportunities. On-chain metrics, including reduced exchange inflows and increased whale accumulation, further support the bounce thesis. However, risks remain if broader market factors, such as macroeconomic data or regulatory news, exert additional pressure. Institutional flows, tracked through ETF data, show mixed signals but could catalyze the expected consolidation phase.

Looking ahead, van de Poppe expects Bitcoin to enter a consolidation period rather than an immediate surge, allowing the market to digest recent losses before resuming its uptrend. This perspective is crucial for swing traders, who might position for a move from current levels toward $100,000, with stop-losses below $85,000 to manage downside risk. Historical comparisons to events like the Luna crash highlight how such sentiment lows have preceded bull runs, with Bitcoin often rebounding 20-30% in the following weeks. For diversified portfolios, correlations with stock markets—such as Nasdaq's tech-heavy indices—could influence BTC's path, especially if AI-driven innovations boost risk appetite. Trading indicators like RSI, currently in oversold territory below 30, reinforce the potential for mean reversion. Overall, this analysis points to a strategic buying window, but patience is key during consolidation. Investors should track real-time updates, including volume spikes and sentiment shifts, to capitalize on emerging trends.

In summary, while uncertainty lingers on whether $85,000 will be tested, the technical setup and exhausted downside liquidity make a compelling case for Bitcoin's recovery. Van de Poppe's insights, drawn from years of market observation, remind traders that shakeouts like this often pave the way for stronger advances. By focusing on concrete data points—such as the Fear & Greed Index at 11 and the 20-day MA gap—traders can navigate this phase with informed strategies, potentially positioning for gains in the $95,000-$100,000 zone. As always, combining this with personal risk assessment ensures balanced trading decisions in the volatile crypto landscape.