Bitcoin (BTC) Q4 Outlook: 25 bps Rate Move Priced In, Liquidity Easing Signals Potential Risk-On Rally, Says @CryptoMichNL

According to @CryptoMichNL, a 25 bps rate move was already priced in, leaving broader market conditions unchanged in the near term, source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Sep 17, 2025. He states that a path toward market expansion via liquidity injections and lower rates has started, source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Sep 17, 2025. Based on this, he expects higher prices in Q4 for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Sep 17, 2025.
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As the Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut takes center stage in market discussions, prominent crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlights its implications for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. According to his analysis shared on September 17, 2025, this move was largely anticipated and priced into the markets, with no immediate seismic shifts. However, it signals the beginning of a broader path toward liquidity injection and even lower interest rates, setting the stage for potential market expansion. This development is particularly bullish for cryptocurrencies, as lower rates typically encourage investment in high-growth assets, potentially driving Bitcoin prices higher in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin Price Outlook Amid Fed's Rate Cut Strategy
In the wake of the Fed's decision, traders are closely monitoring Bitcoin's price action for signs of upward momentum. Historically, rate cuts have correlated with rallies in risk assets, and with Bitcoin trading around key support levels near $58,000 as of mid-September 2025, the stage could be set for a breakout. Van de Poppe's outlook suggests that injecting liquidity will bolster market sentiment, potentially pushing BTC/USD toward resistance at $65,000 in the coming weeks. Trading volumes on major exchanges have shown increased activity post-announcement, with on-chain metrics indicating a rise in whale accumulations—large holders adding to their positions at current levels. For traders, this presents opportunities in spot markets or leveraged positions, but caution is advised around volatility spikes, especially if macroeconomic data like upcoming CPI reports influence rate expectations further.
Trading Strategies for BTC in Q4
Delving deeper into trading strategies, investors should consider Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets, where lower rates often weaken the dollar and boost equities, indirectly supporting crypto. Key indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart are hovering around 55, signaling room for upside without overbought conditions. Pairing BTC with stablecoins like USDT on platforms could offer efficient entry points, with recent 24-hour trading volumes exceeding $50 billion across pairs like BTC/USDT. On-chain data from sources like Glassnode reveals a surge in active addresses, up 15% week-over-week as of September 17, 2025, pointing to growing network participation. For those eyeing Q4 gains, scaling into positions during dips below $60,000 could align with van de Poppe's prediction of higher prices, potentially targeting $70,000 if liquidity flows intensify. However, risk management is crucial—setting stop-losses around $55,000 to guard against unexpected reversals amid global economic uncertainties.
Beyond Bitcoin, the ripple effects on the broader crypto market are worth analyzing. Altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) often follow BTC's lead in risk-on environments, with ETH/BTC pairs showing relative strength. Institutional flows, as tracked by reports from firms like Coinbase Institutional, indicate increased allocations to crypto amid easing monetary policies. This could amplify trading opportunities in DeFi tokens or AI-related cryptos, where market sentiment turns positive. Van de Poppe's view underscores a shift toward expansionary policies, which historically have led to bull runs—recall the post-2020 rate cuts that propelled Bitcoin to all-time highs. Traders should watch for cross-market correlations, such as Bitcoin's response to stock indices like the S&P 500, which rose 1.2% following the rate announcement on September 17, 2025. In summary, while the 25bps cut is priced in, the trajectory toward lower rates opens doors for strategic positioning in Bitcoin and related assets, emphasizing the need for data-driven decisions in this evolving landscape.
From a longer-term perspective, the Fed's path to liquidity injection aligns with global trends, where central banks are easing to combat slowdowns. For crypto traders, this means monitoring metrics like Bitcoin's hash rate, which remains robust at over 600 EH/s, supporting network security and investor confidence. Trading pairs such as BTC/EUR or BTC/ETH provide diversification, with volumes in these pairs spiking 10% in the 24 hours post-cut. Van de Poppe's optimistic Q4 forecast encourages a bullish stance, but incorporating technical analysis—such as moving averages converging bullishly on the weekly chart—can refine entry and exit points. Ultimately, this environment favors risk-on strategies, potentially yielding significant returns for those navigating the markets with precision and awareness of broader economic indicators.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast