Bitcoin's current cycle is sparking intense debate among traders and analysts, with many questioning whether 'this time is different' in the cryptocurrency market. According to André Dragosch, a prominent financial analyst, key on-chain metrics suggest that the ongoing Bitcoin bull market might just be at its beginning rather than nearing an end. He highlights three critical indicators: the percentage of HODLed coins is as high as it was at the start of the previous bull market, the percentage of illiquid supply has reached multi-year highs, and the percentage of supply held on exchanges is at multi-year lows. These factors paint a picture of strong holder conviction and reduced selling pressure, which could signal sustained upward momentum for BTC prices in the coming months.

Analyzing Bitcoin's On-Chain Metrics for Trading Insights

Diving deeper into these metrics, the high percentage of HODLed coins indicates that long-term investors are not eager to sell, reminiscent of the early stages of the 2020-2021 bull run. This behavior often correlates with price stability and potential breakouts, as fewer coins in circulation can amplify demand-driven rallies. Traders should monitor support levels around $60,000, where Bitcoin has shown resilience in recent sessions. If illiquid supply continues to climb, it could push BTC toward resistance at $70,000, offering breakout trading opportunities. Volume analysis from major exchanges supports this, with lower exchange balances reducing the risk of sudden dumps. For instance, as of September 25, 2025, these trends were noted, suggesting that dip-buying strategies might yield high returns if market sentiment remains positive.

Implications for BTC Trading Strategies

From a trading perspective, the low supply on exchanges is particularly bullish, as it limits the available coins for quick liquidation. This setup is not typical of bull market tops, where exchange inflows usually spike ahead of corrections. Instead, it mirrors cycle beginnings, where accumulation phases dominate. Institutional flows, including ETF inflows, could further bolster this narrative, potentially driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Traders might consider long positions with stop-losses below key moving averages, such as the 50-day EMA, to capitalize on volatility. Market indicators like the RSI hovering around neutral levels also suggest room for growth without immediate overbought conditions. Combining these with broader crypto market correlations, such as Ethereum's performance, provides a holistic view for diversified portfolios.

While historical patterns warn against overconfidence in 'this time is different' narratives, the data here is compelling for optimistic outlooks. On-chain analytics from sources like Glassnode often validate such observations, showing sustained holder behavior amid global economic uncertainties. For stock market correlations, Bitcoin's strength could influence tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, where crypto exposure via companies like MicroStrategy adds cross-market trading angles. Overall, this cycle's unique supply dynamics encourage cautious yet proactive trading, focusing on accumulation during pullbacks rather than chasing peaks.

In summary, these metrics underscore a potentially prolonged bull phase for Bitcoin, urging traders to align strategies with long-term holder trends. By prioritizing on-chain data over short-term noise, investors can navigate the market more effectively, eyeing opportunities in BTC/USD pairs and related derivatives.