Bitcoin Nears $107K Amid Ceasefire Relief and Fed Watch

Bitcoin surged to $107,350 on Wednesday, marking a 0.691% 24-hour gain, as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel alleviated fears of an oil supply crunch, propelling risk assets higher across global markets. According to Francisco Rodrigues, this rally saw the broader CoinDesk 20 index rise by 1%, with ether (ETH) trading at $2,430.65 and showing a 0.192% increase over the same period. The uplift was further bolstered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Tuesday, where he emphasized a patient approach to interest rate cuts, citing elevated inflation and potential tariff pressures. U.S. consumer-confidence data softened, pulling two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78% and raising the implied probability of a July rate cut to 20%, as tracked by the CME FedWatch tool.

Market Uncertainty Persists Despite Gains

While the ceasefire provided initial optimism, doubts about its sustainability could cap further gains. Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlighted concerns after a leaked U.S. intelligence report questioned the effectiveness of strikes against Iran's nuclear capabilities, potentially reigniting geopolitical risks. Powell's upcoming testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on June 25 at 10 a.m. ET adds to the uncertainty, as he faces political pressure for rate cuts amid inflation worries. Traders are closely monitoring these developments, with the Polymarket platform indicating an 18% chance of a rate cut, reflecting cautious sentiment. If tensions resurface or inflation data disappoints, Bitcoin could retest support levels near $100,000, making risk management essential for short-term positions.

Derivatives and Options Signal Range-Bound Action

Crypto derivatives markets reveal a neutral to mildly bullish stance, according to Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute. For the June 27 options expiry, traders sold straddles and short puts around $105,000 and $100,000, suggesting expectations of tight price action in that range. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September expiries points to underlying bullishness. Funding rates on Binance for BTC stand at 0.0048% (annualized to 5.2626%), while the BTC put-call ratio on Deribit rose, partly due to cash-secured put strategies for yield generation. ETH perpetual funding rates also indicate moderate positivity, with annualized basis on offshore exchanges at 5% for three-month futures, below May highs of 7%. This mixed positioning implies that while volatility may be contained near-term, breakouts above $108,000 could trigger upward momentum.

Key Events and Trading Opportunities Ahead

Several catalysts could influence crypto markets in the coming days. Powell's Senate testimony on June 25 is pivotal, with potential impacts on risk sentiment and dollar strength. Macroeconomic data releases include May durable goods orders on June 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET, estimated at 8.5% month-over-month after a previous -6.3% decline, and final Q1 GDP figures expected at -0.2% quarter-over-quarter. Additionally, CME Group's introduction of spot-quoted futures on June 30, pending approval, could enhance institutional flows into BTC and ETH. Token unlocks pose risks, with Optimism (OP) set to release $17.13 million worth of tokens on June 30 and Sui (SUI) unlocking $122.31 million on July 1, potentially increasing selling pressure. Technically, the XRP/BTC pair on Binance is trading in a falling wedge pattern, signaling a potential bullish reversal if it breaks out of converging trendlines. For Bitcoin, immediate resistance lies at $108,000, with support at $105,000 and $100,000; a breach above resistance could target $112,000, offering swing trading opportunities.

ETF Flows and Broader Market Correlations

Spot BTC ETFs continue to attract strong inflows, with daily net flows of $588.6 million and cumulative holdings reaching $47.58 billion, as reported by Farside Investors. Similarly, spot ETH ETFs saw $71.3 million in daily inflows, supporting overall market liquidity. Crypto equities like MicroStrategy (MSTR) gained 1.45% in pre-market trading to $382.47, reflecting correlated bullish sentiment. Broader market indices, such as the S&P 500 closing up 1.11% at 6,092.18 on Tuesday, underscore the risk-on environment, but traders should watch for divergences if Powell's testimony dampens expectations. With BTC dominance at 65.52%, altcoins like Solana (SOL) showed strength, rising 2.718% to $146.99, while ADA gained 1.621% to $0.558. Monitoring these flows and correlations can help identify entry points, especially with high-risk DeFi loans declining by $242 million in two weeks, reducing liquidation risks and fostering healthier market conditions.