Bitcoin (BTC) Up 429% Since 2022 vs Gold, Silver, QQQ; Eric Balchunas Says BlackRock Spot ETF Context Makes Dread Short-Sighted
According to Eric Balchunas, since 2022 (right before the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF filing) Bitcoin (BTC) is up 429% versus gold 177%, silver 350%, and QQQ 140%, signaling multi-year outperformance despite recent drawdown fears (source: Eric Balchunas). According to Eric Balchunas, this context makes near-term dread look short-sighted and highlights BTC’s sustained relative strength over traditional assets that traders track, including precious metals and tech-heavy equities (source: Eric Balchunas).
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Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth in recent years, outpacing traditional assets like gold, silver, and major stock indices, according to financial analyst Eric Balchunas. In a recent social media post, Balchunas highlighted that since 2022, just before the BlackRock ETF filing, Bitcoin has surged an impressive 429%, significantly outperforming gold's 177% gain, silver's 350% increase, and the QQQ ETF's 140% rise. This comparison underscores Bitcoin's dominant performance, particularly in 2023, where it 'spanked everything' despite current market sentiments of dread among Bitcoin enthusiasts and celebrations from skeptics.
Analyzing Bitcoin's Long-Term Price Momentum and Market Dominance
From a trading perspective, Bitcoin's 429% rally since early 2022 positions it as a powerhouse in the asset class hierarchy. Traders should note key price levels during this period: Bitcoin bottomed around $16,000 in late 2022 amid the FTX collapse, then climbed steadily, breaking through resistance at $30,000 by mid-2023 and accelerating toward $60,000 by early 2024. This momentum was fueled by institutional interest, including the anticipation of spot Bitcoin ETFs. In contrast, gold traded within a narrower range, peaking near $2,400 per ounce with a 177% gain, while silver's 350% surge from pandemic lows reflects its volatility but still trails Bitcoin's returns. The QQQ, representing tech-heavy Nasdaq stocks, achieved 140% growth driven by AI and tech booms, yet Bitcoin's uncorrelated nature offers diversification benefits for portfolios. Current trading volumes on major exchanges like Binance show Bitcoin's 24-hour volume exceeding $30 billion as of recent data, indicating sustained liquidity despite short-term pullbacks.
Market indicators further validate this outperformance. Bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI) has hovered above 60 on weekly charts since mid-2023, signaling strong bullish momentum, while on-chain metrics from sources like Glassnode reveal increasing holder accumulation with over 70% of BTC unmoved for a year. Traders eyeing entry points might consider support levels around $50,000, with resistance at $70,000, especially as ETF inflows from BlackRock and others have injected billions into the ecosystem. This institutional flow correlates with Bitcoin's price spikes, such as the 20% jump following ETF approvals in January 2024, highlighting trading opportunities in volatility plays or long-term holds.
Cross-Asset Correlations and Trading Strategies Amid Market Sentiment
Balchunas points out the short-sightedness of current dread among Bitcoin holders and the premature victory laps by critics, given these historical gains. In the broader market context, Bitcoin's performance ties into crypto-stock correlations, with QQQ's tech focus overlapping AI-driven narratives that boost tokens like ETH and SOL. For instance, during QQQ's 140% run, Bitcoin often moved in tandem during risk-on periods but decoupled during downturns, providing hedging potential. Traders can leverage this by monitoring pairs like BTC/USD against GLD (gold ETF) or SLV (silver ETF), where Bitcoin's premium has widened. Recent sentiment analysis from platforms like Santiment shows fear and greed index dipping to neutral levels, yet whale activity remains robust, with large transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC daily.
Looking ahead, potential trading opportunities arise from macroeconomic factors. With interest rate cuts speculated for 2024, Bitcoin could benefit from risk asset rallies, potentially targeting $100,000 if it breaks all-time highs. However, risks include regulatory hurdles or stock market corrections impacting QQQ, which might drag crypto sentiment. Institutional flows, such as BlackRock's ETF amassing over $10 billion in assets under management by mid-2024, suggest sustained upside. In summary, while short-term fluctuations may cause unease, Bitcoin's 429% gain since 2022 reinforces its role as a superior store of value and growth asset, encouraging traders to focus on long-term charts rather than daily noise. For those diversifying, pairing Bitcoin with silver or gold could balance portfolios, but data clearly shows BTC's edge in high-growth scenarios.
Eric Balchunas
@EricBalchunasBloomberg's Senior ETF Analyst and acclaimed author, co-hosting Trillions & ETF IQ while bringing deep institutional investment insights.